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Italy's Stock Market Closes Up After Wild Swings

Matthew Boesler

The Italian stock market closed Monday's session up just 0.7 percent.

Earlier, Italian stocks were up as much as 4 percent, but news that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was making a comeback in the polls sent stocks reeling. They even turned negative near the end of the day before rebounding a bit.

Darkhorse anti-establishment candidate Beppe Grillo garnered a significant share of the vote as well.

The chart below shows how the FTSE MIB 35 turned down sharply after making big gains earlier on news that market-friendly candidate Pier Luigi Bersani was leading decisively:


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EARLIER: The first exit polls from the Italian elections are out, and Italian markets are liking the news.

Center-left candidate Pier Luigi Bersani – seen as the best outcome for markets, as well as the most likely – looks set to win the election.

The FTSE MIB 35 is up nearly 3 percent on the news.

Miller Tabak Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson sent out some color following the news:

At 9am Et Sky News ran the headline claiming that an exit poll of Italian voters would return a Bersani-Monti coalition and probably the most market-friendly outcome. An RAI poll projects Bersani would win 38% in the senate vote against Berlusconi and would win 32%. Bersani is predicted to win 37% of the chamber vote compared to 31% for Berlusconi.

Italian government bond yields were already pre-empting a positive outcome with BTPs lower by 11bps ahead of the headline. Since then, yields have doubled their decline for the session further encouraging a risk-on attitude across the continent. The 10-year yield is currently lower by 23bps at 4.216% to its lowest so far this month. Stocks in Milan immediately jumped building on an already bullish session. The FTSEMIB advanced to a 475-point gain (+2.93%) while across the region the Eurostoxx index is now higher by 2.46%.

The chart below shows how stocks really just ramped up:


The euro initially bumped higher but is trading back down again.



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