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How is Flowers Foods (FLO) Positioned Ahead of Q3 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Flowers Foods, Inc. FLO is scheduled to release third-quarter 2019 results on Nov 7. The packaged bakery foods company has a negative earnings surprise of 3.8% for the last reported quarter. However, it has a mixed surprise record for the trailing four quarters.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2019 earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at 22 cents per share, which suggests a decline of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $942.5 million, which indicates a rise of 2% from the prior-year quarter’s level.

Factors to Note

Flowers Foods’ top line in the third quarter is likely to have benefitted from market share gains.  To this end, buyouts and efforts to refresh brands have been key drivers. We believe that synergies from the acquisition of Canyon Bakehouse, Dave’s Killer Bread, Nature's Own and Wonder brands are likely to have contributed in the third quarter. Notably, the Canyon Bakehouse buyout has enabled the company to strengthen presence in the growing gluten-free bakery space.

Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Flowers Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Flowers Foods, Inc. Quote

 

Also, gains from efficient pricing strategies are likely to have reflected in the quarter’s performance. Favorable price/mix is expected to have boosted revenues in branded retail and store branded retail categories as well as the company’s base business.

Additionally, management has been on track with Project Centennial, which focuses on streamlining operations, fueling efficiencies and optimizing supply chain functions. These efforts are likely to have contributed to the company’s third-quarter performance.

However, Flowers Foods has been struggling with higher production costs, especially in relation to materials, supplies, labor and transportation. Production costs have been rising mainly due to headwinds such as lower volumes, reduced manufacturing efficiencies and increased workforce-related expenses. High costs are likely to have exerted pressure on the company’s bottom line in the quarter under review.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Flowers Foods has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination to post an earnings beat:

Blue Apron APRN has an Earnings ESP of +9.92% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Grocery Outlet GO has an Earnings ESP of +2.70% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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