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AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. AnaptysBio has also found favour with investors, with the stock up a notable 12% to US$26.16 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.
Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering AnaptysBio, is for revenues of US$67m in 2021, which would reflect a measurable 6.1% reduction in AnaptysBio's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.64 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$48m and losses of US$3.01 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for AnaptysBio 14% to US$29.80 on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic AnaptysBio analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 8.1% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 31% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 14% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AnaptysBio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around AnaptysBio's prospects. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at AnaptysBio.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AnaptysBio going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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