THE TAKEAWAY: USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Index (NOV): 54.7 versus 53.5 expected, from 54.2 > USD/JPY BULLISH
Despite numerous warnings by economists, financial industry leaders, central bankers, and US politicians, the US economy remains resilient in the face of an impending fiscal cliff/slope, with the November ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services index rising to its highest level since March this year.
The services industry in the United States – perhaps better in tune with consumer spending figures than the ISM Manufacturing report released yesterday, which fell to its lowest level of the year at 49.5 in November – continues to grow, and at an increasingly faster pace, suggesting that, fiscal cliff/slope be damned, the US economy will not be shaken by what has been up to now a potential (but not guaranteed) spending sequester in a few weeks.
Of note, the Activity/Production sub-index surged to 61.2 from 53.7, while the New Orders sub-index gained to 58.1 from 50.3. The Employment sub-index also improved, to growth again at 50.3 from 48.4, although a higher Prices sub-index, at 57.0 from 52.5, suggests that inflation may be a concern in the coming months. Overall, though, this was a strong report for the US economy, and thus, for the US Dollar.
USD/CAD 1-minute Chart: December 5, 2012
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the release, the USD/JPY rallied from 82.07 to as high as 82.21, before pulling back slightly at the time this report was written. The Japanese Yen component of this pair has been particularly weak, given ongoing political pandering in Japan ahead of the December 16 elections.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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