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Forex Strategy: Stay Short EUR/SEK and AUD/CAD

Ilya Spivak

I sold EURSEK at 8.7315 after prices completed a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern at channel and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. I am expecting Risksbank to switch to a neutral policy stance after December’s rate cut while the ECB begins easing in 2013 as falling “PIIGS” bond yields mark normalization of monetary policy transmission. Prices have now met my second target at 8.5550 and I'm aiming for 8.4812 from here.

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I have also entered short AUDCAD at 1.0340 after prices bounced to retest channel support-turned-resistance, looking to trade the narrowing of the yield differential between the two currencies as the RBA continues to ease while the BOC remains on hold in the months ahead. I am initially targeting 1.0260, with a stop-loss to be a triggered on a daily close above 1.0420.

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