Forex: US Dollar Hoping for a Lifeline in Pro-Taper Fed Commentary

Talking Points:

• NZ Dollar Continued to Correct Higher, Yen Ignored the BOJ Overnight

• Pound, Franc Unlikely to Move on Industrial Production and Jobs Data

• US Dollar May Find Renewed Support in Taper-Supportive “Fed-Speak”

The New Zealand Dollar continued to correct higher for a second consecutive day in overnight trade. A lull in market-moving event risk seemingly opened the door for further profit-taking after the Kiwi significantly underperformed last week, sliding 0.72 percent against its US namesake. The Japanese Yen edged higher as Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower, boosting haven demand for the safety-linked currency. A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan proved uneventful as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and company kept things unchanged as expected.

The economic calendar looks broadly uneventful in European trading hours. Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate is expected to tick downward to 3.3 percent, marking the lowest reading in four months. Separately, UK Industrial Production data is expected to show that output growth slowed to a year-on-year rate of 2.2 percent in February after jumping to a three-year high of 2.9 percent in the prior month. Neither of the reports is likely to carry significant near-term implications for their relevant central banks’ monetary policy outlook, hinting their impact on Swiss Franc and British Pound price action will be limited at best.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the “Fed-speak” docket. Comments from Minneapolis and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser – both current members of the policy-setting FOMC committee – are due to cross the wires. Alternate FOMC member and Chicago Fed President Charlies Evans is likewise due to speak. Investors will look to the tone of officials’ rhetoric to set guide speculation about continuity of the Fed’s effort to “taper” QE asset purchases, with a relatively hawkish lean likely to boost the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:00	NZD	NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q)	52	-	53
23:50	JPY	Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	612.7B	618.1B	-1589.0B
23:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)	-41.4.7B	24.7B	-588.3B
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (FEB)	-533.4B	-593.6B	-2345.4B
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence (MAR)	4	-	7
1:30	AUD	NAB Business Conditions (MAR)	1	-	0
2:50	JPY	Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target (¥)	270T	270T	270T
4:30	JPY	Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)	-12.37%	-	-14.62%
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)		-	53
5:00	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)		39.5	40

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate (MAR)	3.3%	3.5%	Medium
5:45	CHF	Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR)	3.2%	3.2%	Medium
6:30	EUR	Bank of France Business Sentiment (MAR)	-	98	Low
6:45	EUR	French Central Gov't Balance (€) (FEB)	-	-12.7B	Low
6:45	EUR	French Trade Balance (€) (FEB)	-5000M	-5732M	Low
7:15	CHF	Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (FEB)	-	0.3%	Low
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.1%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)	2.2%	2.9%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)	0.3%	0.4%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)	3.1%	3.3%	Medium

Critical Levels

CCY	Supp 3	Supp 2	Supp 1	Pivot Point	Res 1	Res 2	Res 3
EUR/USD	1.3618	1.3673	1.3707	1.3728	1.3762	1.3783	1.3838
GBP/USD	1.6483	1.6541	1.6575	1.6599	1.6633	1.6657	1.6715

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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