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Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC (FTAI) Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

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Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC  (NYSE: FTAI)
Q1 2019 Earnings Call
May. 03, 2019, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC First quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Alan Andreini. Sir, you may begin.

Alan Andreini -- Investor Relations

Thank you, Operator. I would like to welcome you to the Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Joining me here today are Joe Adams, our Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Christopher, our Chief Financial Officer. We have posted an investor presentation and press release on our website, which we encourage you to download if you have not already done so. Also, please note that this call is open to the public in listen-only mode and is being webcast. In addition, we'll be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures during the call today including FAD. The reconciliations of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings supplement.

Before I turn the call over to Joe, I would like to point out that certain statements made today will be forward-looking statements including regarding future earnings. These statements by their nature are uncertain and may differ materially from actual results. We encourage you to review the disclaimers in our press release and investor presentation regarding non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements and to review the risk factors contained in our quarterly report filed with the SEC.

Now, I would like to turn the call over to Joe.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Alan. To start today, I'm pleased to announce our 16th dividend as a public company and our 31st consecutive dividend since inception. The dividend of $0.33 per share will be paid on May 28 based on a shareholder record date of May 17. The key metrics for us are adjusted EBITDA and FAD, where funds available for distribution.

Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2019 was $66.3 million compared to Q4 of 2018 of $63.1 million and Q1 of 2018 of $48.1 million. FAD was $70.2 million in Q1 versus $57.7 million in Q4 of 2018 and $34.4 million in Q1 of 2018. During the first quarter, the $70.2 million FAD number was comprised of $101.1 million from our equipment leasing portfolio and negative $4.1 million from our infrastructure business and negative $26.8 million from corporate.

Starting now with aviation, the macros for the industry overall continue to be impressive with 2018 revenue passenger kilometer -- miles -- revenue RPKs up 6.5% over 2017. And our aviation business had another good quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 was approximately $74.2 million or $296.8 million annualized, up from $286.1 million annualized in Q4. During Q1, we closed $105.3 million in new investments and we ended Q1 with over $190 million in signed letters of intent, which together with our existing assets should generate approximately $380 million in annual EBITDA, when everything is closed.

Aviation was able to maintain our targeted return of 25% EBITDA to invested capital in Q1, even though we quote lost EBITDA of approximately $5 million in Q1 resulting from downtime due to the transitioning of five aircraft on to six year leases with new operators and due to 14 engines being inducted for shop visits in Q1. Both of these are great long-term outcomes which will be better reflected in future quarters. And we are expecting strong EBITDA growth in Q2 and beyond without any gains from asset sales. And speaking of gains from asset sales, we have begun the process of harvesting some of the $400 million in value of our portfolio over its carrying cost and recycling capital and anticipate posting $20 million or more in gains in Q2.

Our strategic position in the commercial aftermarket engine sector also continues to advance meaningfully. Our proprietary Advanced Engine Repair is progressing well and we anticipate launching the first products in early 2020. We have grown and further developed our part supply engine overhaul partnerships with Chromalloy for the CF6 ADC2 engine AAR for the CFM-56 engine. In this quarter, we added a new partnership with United for the Pratt 4000 engine. This new airline and MRO relationship will undoubtedly expand to other assets and products and we're extremely excited about the potential size and strategic importance to our franchise.

Turning now to offshore, the offshore marine industry remains in a position of significant over-supply, but there are promising signs of recovery now. Offshore spending is expected to grow in 2019, up 4% year-over-year marking the first year of CapEx growth since the downturn nearly five years ago. At the same time, Subsea tree awards are expected to triple in volume between their low in 2016 and 2019.

As we mentioned previously, we are in the process of transitioning the pride away from the general inspection repair maintenance market into well intervention. A new tower which is needed for well intervention, should be delivered to us in February of 2020 and in between we should see intermittent utilization of the pride over the course of this year.

Turning now to infrastructure in Jefferson. Jefferson had a decent quarter in Q1 from a financial perspective in spite of headwinds from a tighter WTI versus WCS spread caused by temporary production curtailment ordered by the Alberta government. With production now rising again and no new pipelines on the horizon, spreads are increasing out today to $12 per barrel and to $15 to $20 a barrel for Q3 and Q4 of this year. As such we expect crude from Canada volumes to grow nicely over the balance of this year and next.

In addition to the Canadian heavy, we've also started this month a test program to bring waxy crude in by rail, which seems quite promising for locking in long-term crude by rail, supply and offtake contracts. Our capacity took a big step up this month with 815,000 barrels coming online, which is fully contracted for between three to five years. And we are in negotiations with third-parties for an additional 1.4 million barrels of new storage beginning Q4 of this year. Importantly for future volume growth, we have now commenced construction of three pipeline projects, which we expect will be completed in early 2020. They are one inbound crude pipe, one outbound crude pipe and multiple refined products and crude connections with a neighboring refinery.

As part of this pipeline expansion, we plan to add another 2 million barrels of storage bringing the total to over 6 million barrels and another deepwater dock all for a total investment of approximately $250 million, which we expect to finance with all nonrecourse debt at Jefferson in the latter half of this year. With this phase completed by mid-2020, the terminal should comfortably be generating $100 million of EBITDA with top tier customers contracted an outstanding growth prospects ahead.

Refined products to Mexico is experiencing nice growth as well. The terminal expansion was recently completed and we should see volumes grow from 15,000 barrels per day in Q1 to 30,000 barrels per day in Q3, and up to 60,000 barrels per day next year.

Now, let's turn to the Central Maine & Quebec Railroad. CMQR is off to a good start in 2019, when we normalize Q1 of 2018 by taking out 45G tax credits, and one time detour haulage and we compare it to Q1 of this year. We see EBITDA going from $6,000 in Q1 of 2018 to $1.2 million in Q1 of 2019 or a 100% increase.

Carloads without the detour haulage went from $6,290 in Q1 of 2018 to 7,200 in Q1 of 2019 or a 15% increase year-over-year. In addition to these improving operating results, we commenced our car cleaning operation in Q1 of this year. We have combined skilled operators with a new semi automatic -- semi automated car cleaning technology to give us one of the fastest turnaround times in the industry of 30 days to 45 days.

And as a result, our backlog of orders is building up nicely. So with the ramp in the car cleaning operation and with the recently signed new haulage agreement, which will add approximately 6,000 incremental carloads this year. We have started the process of exploring the sale of the CMQR and feel confident that CMQR will produce $10 million in annual adjusted EBITDA in 2019 before any potential buyer synergies.

Turning now to Repauno. The next big development project in infrastructure for us involves executing long term natural gas liquids or NGL export agreements at Repauno. And the macro environment for that couldn't be better. As a direct result of growing North American crude and natural gas production and no growth in domestic NGL consumption, NGL exports have grown from 100,000 barrels a day 10 years ago to 1.1 million barrels a day currently. Thus export terminal capacity particularly on the East Coast is in very high demand.

We're actively involved in negotiations for Phase I commitments, which would be operational in 2020. Phase 2 volumes would begin in 2022 when additional cavern storage would be available to us. Phase I capital and annual EBITDA are estimated to be approximately $60 million and $20 million respectively, and Phase two $500 million and $150 million respectively. This feels very similar to where we were a year ago, with Long Ridge Tower and we're hoping for a similarly great outcome.

Now on Long Ridge, we have begun the process of selling the 50% ownership interest in Long Ridge power plant. We've hired a banker and are contacting potential buyers. While still early, given initial indications including from some unsolicited inbound calls, we feel good about being able to realize value of $200 million to $250 million and close that by the end of Q3 this year.

The frac sand operation there is off to a good start in 2019 as well. For Q1, we translated 220,000 tons of frac sand, a 44% increase from Q4 and drilling activity in the Utica, Marcellus is robust and with Long Ridge being the only terminal in the Appalachian Basins with both unit train and barge capability, Long Ridge is well-positioned to benefit from that activity. So in conclusion, aviation continues to grow while maintaining its strong return profile. We continue to widen the moat with new partnerships and products to make it even harder for anyone to copy what we do. In short, the engine business just keeps getting better and better.

As the infrastructure, our three ports are all ramping at an accelerating pace. We set out to build infrastructure at a three times to four times EBITDA multiple to have a trade publicly at a 12 times to 13 times EBITDA multiple and to sell if we choose at a 15 times to 17 times EBITDA multiple, and we are well on our way to achieving those goals. Development takes time, but it's worth it.

In summary, Q1 was our best financial quarter ever with adjusted EBITDA of $66.3 million and positive EBITDA from infrastructure, again. Of equal or greater importance from the value creation perspective, this was our best quarter ever. Our engine business is poised to capitalize on new products and expanding industry partnerships including with United Airlines and our visibility in the future cash flows has never been better and all signs indicate the drag from infrastructure is over.

Jefferson's expanding and integrated relationships with local refineries, Long Ridge's execution of long-term power offtakes and Repauno's engagement with multiple long-term NGL producers and purchasers has put us on a clear path to long-term value creation and EBITDA growth.

With that I'll turn the call back over to Alan.

Alan Andreini -- Investor Relations

Thank you, Joe. Operator, you may now open the call to Q&A.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Justin Long with Stephens. Your line is now open.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thanks and good morning. So to start, Joe, you seem to have a lot more confidence in the ramp at Jefferson. We've been waiting for this asset to inflect positively for a while. So can you just talk about the level of visibility to that $100 million EBITDA projection that you discussed earlier?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. And yes, I think that observation is correct. A couple reasons. One is, as I mentioned, the new tanks to come online 800,000 barrels and as they came online in April, is fully committed and contracted for the next three or five years. And so that provides a minimum of minimum revenue commitment for those. But in addition to that, when somebody rents the tank that means they're going to do something with it. So in addition to that, you will see volumes coming in most likely by rail and some other means to get it in and also goes out by barge or ultimately by pipes. So those tanks will get used and generate additional revenue.

Secondly, crude-by-rail from Canada starting last year, I think a number of producers and many people realize there's not enough pipeline takeaway capacity. So they began the process of getting commitments and buying railcars, obtaining rail rates from the railroads and rail slots, and committing to terminal loading capability in Canada. So a lot of those programs are now just about to start up in -- starting up in the summer and so that means volumes by rail will be coming to the Gulf Coast. And we see ourselves being able to get some of that volume. Obviously. not all of it but a decent amount and having the new storage available on the new storage coming online, puts us really in a very good position to get that. So we see we have pretty good visibility on future crude by rail from Canada volumes for this year and next.

And then thirdly, as I mentioned, the pipelines -- having pipelines available gives you ratable flow. So you get regular take-or-pay contracts, so you have crude flowing every day through the terminal. It's also very efficient. So it gives -- puts you in a very good competitive position to do additional services like blending, and so we see additional upside from having those pipes. That's not really reflected today in any of the numbers. So I think for those reasons, we feel very good about the -- that past chapter on Jefferson is closed and the new chapter of positive EBITDA is open. So...

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And secondly, I wanted to ask about the partnership that was just announced with United. Can you talk a little bit more in detail about what this entails? And any thoughts around the financial impact, you expect both this year and maybe longer term?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So it's a partnership where we're buying some engines from United and then we're going to be doing the maintenance work at United's maintenance MRO shop in San Francisco, a total of I believe 16 engines now. Pratt 4000 engines. And so it enables us to do is the positive for us as we can buy engines and overhaul them much more cheaply than we could do it by buying them in the open markets. So it's an embedded gain in each one of those engines as we finish the work. United also benefits because they get to consume some use serviceable material, which is an added benefit to them and it's an attractive cost for both of us and it generates third party work for them. So it's a very nice template for other assets. And so when I mentioned that we're very excited about it, United has lots of airplanes and lots of engines. They have nearly 600 CFM56 engines and over 200 V2500 engines. And so, the Pratt deal is a nice place to start, but we don't see it as the -- as the end. We see it as the beginning.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Helpful. And any thoughts around the financial impact this year?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think we'll see higher returns on those incremental engines unless we decide to monetize them, and we could see gains if we do sell some of them. So I wouldn't -- I don't have a specific number from that.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the time and congrats on the quarter.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities. Your line is now open.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities LLC -- Analyst

All right. Great. Good morning, and yeah thanks for all the detail that you always provide, very helpful. And maybe a follow-up here just on Aviation. You mentioned some sales expected in the second quarter, I think it was $20 million plus. Can you just maybe help us with what's the base of assets that that's off. I'm assuming just given that number is pretty large implied gains. So any help there and then just in terms of thinking about kind of, gains going forward, maybe talk a little bit about what's driving those in the portfolio? Is the depreciation schedules or just kind of, where you purchased the assets. And then related, just how you're thinking about kind of the ability to turn over the portfolio. How much should we think potentially could be turned over, over maybe the next couple of years?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So to start with, I mentioned $20 million gains, the assets that we are targeting have a book value of less than $50 million. So we're looking at under $50 million of book value with a gain of in excess of $20 million. And I think that's kind of representative, we've talked in the past about having assets that are appraised (ph) at a $1.5 billion and carry on the books at $1.1 billion, so it could be even slightly better ratio than that.

I think the thought process as we mentioned is I think we're pretty good at buying assets cheaply and then adding value and we're finding buyers who are willing to pay us prices that we -- at a cap rate that we wouldn't invest at. So it's effectively just monetize the amount and then we believe we can do that over and over again. So I think that, it's the program for us now. It's obviously not something would happen every single quarter. But I think we could see regular asset sale program that we will -- we'll do every year. So it could be a $100 million or so of book value that we could do that with. So I feel very good about that.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities LLC -- Analyst

Okay. Very helpful. Terrific. And then maybe just a follow-up here on some of the asset sales outside of aviation. So CMQR, it sounds like the process has started Long Ridge and moving forward, maybe just help us a little bit with timing of when you expect there actually be something hard there, where you have a time frame of, kind of, a closing? And should we think about the capital coming in for the most part getting recycled back into aviation? Or are there other material business needs where capital would go? Or would you even reduce that?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So as I mentioned in my remarks, I think our goal for the power plant is in Q3 by the end of Q3 to close that. And I would say CMQR, my hope would be this year, in the calendar year. With respect to the capital, most likely it'll be invested in aviation to the extent that we don't have aviation investment opportunities we like we would reduce debt.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities LLC -- Analyst

Got it. And then to be clear on Long Ridge, when you say closed, you mean actually close on the capital or close on an announced transaction?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Both.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities LLC -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks very much.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citi. Your line is now open.

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to follow-up on the United transaction, certainly seems like a really interesting one. I guess the question I have is, sort of, how does this either open the door or potentially close the door to other relationships with carriers in this space? I don't know if you need to be exclusive to one airline per se or how do you think about sort of building out these types of relationships more broadly across the space? Are there other opportunities to do that?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. There are and I think it's a door opener. It's quite -- it's a very credibility enhancing transaction I think for us and for the program. So I think -- and there's other aspects to that. The deal that we haven't disclosed that I think would be interesting to other airlines. And so if you're looking at the airlines we're trying to figure out how to reduce their cost per available seat mile which I believe almost every airline in the world is thinking about doing and they'll be interested in this, what we're doing with United. So I think it opens lots of doors and it doesn't -- United is somewhat unique and that they have a big MRO operation looking to build third party business. That's not every airline in the world doesn't have that. So I don't see that as being a deterrent to anybody else to do business with us. It's simply, I think it's just a good template.

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay. Hey, I don't want to get ahead of myself, but just would you think about sort of the development of those types of relationships with other airlines, how do you think about, is that sort of a multi-year window, sort of this is the beginning (inaudible) over a period of time. Can you do stuff a little quicker, just want to get a rough sense of how you're thinking about the timing of the opportunity?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think it can have, I mean that -- for me the -- the window for -- if you look at the -- the fleets that we're targeting, the big one is 737-800 NGs and the A320s. And those fleets, the aftermarket opportunity as we've said before, grows -- it almost doubles over the next 10 years. So, really the the ideal opportunity timeframe for us to develop all that is in the next two to three years. And that's I think we find as we go out and talk to people that there's pretty broad agreement on the other side that that's also the case. This is the time to get in now, three years from now it'll be too late.

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. And just want to get specific when you're thinking about infrastructure sounds like you turn the corner there, you said the drag is over, should we assume that infrastructure is positive from a FAD perspective going forward from 2Q on, is that what you're -- what that -- like you're suggesting when you make that statement?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, EBITDA, I think FAD is a little bit less than actually with some debt service at a level, so I would say definitely EBITDA, but we'll have to look more closely at FAD as it develops.

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay. Okay that's helpful. And then when you think -- last question for you just on Jefferson, curious about the refined product opportunity, the exports into Mexico, wanted to get a sense of how that looked in the quarter and then what your expectations are for that going forward through the rest of 2019?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So I think first quarter is 15,000 barrels a day and we should be in the 20s in Q2. And then I'm hopeful that will be in Q3 in the 30,000 barrels a day range. And then part of the pipeline projects that we mentioned would allow us to go over 40,000 barrels a day up to potentially 60,000 in 2020. And if you look at the, for instance, I think, Exxon has 200 stations under the mobile brand opened today and I believe they have stated their goal is to double that to 400 by the end of the year. So it's a pretty and Mexico is a enormous market, it's 700,000 or 800,000 barrels a day of imported gasoline and diesel into the country. So it's globally it's one of the biggest markets and might be the biggest market as far as I know but it's enormous. So it's a long term. It's both a short term and long term opportunity for us.

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay. That sounds good. Joe and Alan (ph), thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Rob Salmon with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Rob Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. A couple of follow-up questions on Jefferson and then one on the dividend. I guess, Joe, if we're thinking about the -- that ramp up to 40,000 barrels to 60,000 barrels a day of refined product as we look out to 2020. Could you give us a sense of kind of the timeline, when you're expecting that? Is that a year end number or kind of should we be thinking about the beginning of the year? And then also for the third quarter, when should we be getting to that run rate of 30,000 barrels?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think that's in the third quarter, we should be at that run rate for most of the quarter, I believe that's the current outlook. The 60,000 I would -- I would not assume happens on 1/1/2020, I would say more likely middle. If we got to that, it would be middle of 2020. That's when we would have pipeline connectivity available. And that's not a guarantee either. I'm just saying we'll have the capability to do that. And based on the way things have gone, it feels like that that's likely but it's certainly not guaranteed at this point.

Rob Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Understand, there's always a little bit of uncertainty there. Frankly, the volumes at Jefferson, particularly the roughly almost 40% sequential increase in crude throughput was surprising just given that the spreads have tightened. Could you give us a sense of what drove that sequential increase? And how you guys are thinking about volumes as you look out given the additional 800,000 barrels that came on in the month of April?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So as I mentioned, the Canadian producers and shippers and everyone started the process of really gearing up to go back to crude by rail last year. And so there were a lot of commitments that people made in terms of obtaining railcars, negotiating rail slots from CN and CP and getting loading capacity. And all of those decisions are made on multi-year committed basis. And they're paying -- those producers are paying for that whether they use it or not. So actually, when you look at the marginal cost of crude-by-rail versus pipe, you can justify that is the lower spread or it is $8 to $10 a barrel, some people say $8.

So in that circumstance those volumes are going to move by rail. And that's -- I think, it's a little less of a ability -- well, less ability, you just turn it on and turn it off every quarter. So that's why I feel that for the next several years, we see a fair amount of volume that's lined up pointed at the Gulf of Mexico. And so I think that -- it feels pretty good that we're going to see a decent share of that, given that we invested in the new tanks that came online.

In April, and the new tanks that are coming online, and December you have to have storage available to be able to handle that. So we're in a good position to do that. And then in addition, we started the process of adding the pipeline inbound and outbound, so that will facilitate blending on the inbound side, and also facilitate growing the volumes on the outbound side. So I think, we're as well-positioned for that as we could be.

Rob Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay. Really helpful there. Kind of final one on the dividend. The FAD ex sales coverage, it was pretty stable at 1.5 times clearly, you've highlighted an improving infrastructure outlook with the profitability improvements we're seeing at Jefferson and the additional barrels that are coming online. How should we think about kind of a potential dividend increase as the cash flows ramp here?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we feel like when we close to our target of two to one coverage in Q2, so and then, we'll have to see from there how it -- what we feel like the growth rate is. But definitely it's -- it feels like we've got sequential growth for a while here so.

Rob Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Got it. Appreciate the time.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Ariel Rosa with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats on all the progress that's going on. Joe, just wanted to get your thoughts, first on any impact from IMO 2020 and how that might evolve particularly over at Jefferson?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think, the refineries are going to do well, and they're investing in more production. So to that extent, we're not in the -- we're not a direct beneficiary, but I would call it indirect beneficiary. So it's good for us if Exxon and Motiva are making money and expanding.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Yeah. That makes sense. Okay, great. Shifting a little bit in terms of the -- the partnership with United and bigger picture in terms of how do you see the repair business evolving? Maybe you could talk about how you see the Aviation segment developing in terms of the mix between maintenance and repair services versus leasing revenue? And if your thinking is kind of changed relative to where it was maybe a year ago, and how those two opportunities that's kind of play out?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I am very excited about where we are right now, and our ability to really create value by having a permanent advantage in managing shop visits for less than other people can do. And so, I've talked about that for many years as a sort of barrier to entry or widening the modes or barrier to entry, competitive advantage, whatever. How we monetize that is twofold, one is you monetize it by getting higher returns on your leased assets, which we're doing, and I think, we'll see that continue to grow.

And then as we get better and further into this, we're going to figure out how to monetize it on a fee basis. And we haven't totally figured that out, yet, but I'd say, we're a lot closer to figuring it out than we were. And the market size in this aftermarket repair business over the next, as I said, three to five years, the growth is enormous.

And you talk to any MRO shop out there. They are all very busy. Part prices are high, use (ph) service material tough to get. All of those conditions just make this circumstance what we're doing were ideal -- an ideal partner to help people solve those problems. And I'm sure, we're going to figure out how to monetize that.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Any thought on how the revenue split between leasing versus maintenance and repair services could evolve over time?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, a long time ago, I said, our goal -- so let's say, we do $400 million of EBITDA from leasing. I would love to have $100 million of EBITDA from services on top of that. That's by personal goal.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

On top of the $400 million?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Got it. Okay, great. That's really helpful. And then just last question for me. Obviously, a lot of great development projects in the pipeline, let me just pick your brain a little bit on risk of a downturn and what steps you guys are taking to kind of mitigate the potential impact that can have to FTAI, and it's cash flow streams. I hear you kind of putting in place some longer-term contracts at Jefferson. Just your broader thoughts on how downturn might impact the various lines of business. And what steps you guys can take maybe in advance to just protect yourself against some of those impacts?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. That's a good question. And certainly, the assets we have are very diversified, right. So we have, in the one sense if oil prices go up that's good for Jefferson and energy in general, which we have a couple of place there. And then on the other side, energy prices go down, Aviation benefit. So I think, we've got some diversification across that. We are trying to get longer term contracts and you remember, Long Ridge we have 8.5 year power purchase agreements in place, which we put for the power plant.

We're lengthening the relationships at Jefferson, new contracts, we're trying and pushing for three and sometimes five years. On Repauno, which is really a natural gas liquids play, which really has no correlation with any other play in the portfolio. There we're trying to get five year contracts as well. So think, pushing out the contractual coverage and having diversification for different asset is the best protection we can get.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Great. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks. Thanks for the time.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Hey, this is David Azula (ph) on for Barclays. Thanks for taking my call. With the $190 million LOI you mentioned, could you just talk about what that impact might look like in terms of capital commitments and where you're comfortable taking leverage based on that?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So we're watching leverage. We've got obviously the additional investments in Aviation. We'll push that up on the one hand and then the assets sales, we'll push that down on the other hand. So we're trying to manage it appropriately. And we'll have the need for some additional financing this year, which the markets -- the higher markets, very, very robust now again. And so, we've got a number of different ideas on that. But we are cognizant of leverage creeping up and want to make sure we are prudent on that.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Great. And kind of those ideas of the equity portion of that, yeah, could you just discuss what's some of the ideas on how you want to consider funding the equity portion of the capital commitment?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, as I mentioned, we've got asset sales going on, which will generate cash. We haven't really earmarked anything beyond that.

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Robert Dodd with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Robert J. Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hi, guys. On the Aviation business, but some kind of, at a different angle, obviously, you gave us the indication run rate EBITDA when the LOIs and the existing book is done, $380 million. Can you tell -- give us a little bit more detail on, A, what that -- does that include, for example, the United engines coming out of the shop visits -- and, obviously, that takes a little while but -- and then being put into a service and could you give us -- some of the other businesses, you give us longer term expectations, and Jefferson, for example, $100 million by the mid-2020, on Aviation with the advanced repair coming in at 2020. Any indication you can give us on what you'd expect for EBITDA from kind of the combined all of those Aviation initiatives, kind of mid-2020 or in 2020?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we don't budget new investments. So those happen when we see good deals. As I mentioned, what we have now is signed deals, which -- if we closed everything, it would be $380 million of EBITDA annualized. We've always targeted a new investments to generate 25% of invested capital in annual EBITDA, and I see that trending up. So, I think over the next few quarters, that should -- we should beat that number. So -- but that's all the guidance we really give in terms of it's -- it's very hard to budget new investments.

Robert J. Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Fair comment, Joe. But, I mean, obviously, advanced engine repair isn't -- it had been a long running project. It's not a new investment as such. But I take your point. And then, just going back to the question about funding. On timing wise, obviously, you've got a number of asset sales coming toward the end of the year, some on Aviation, during the next quarter, do you feel comfortable on that leverage (ph),taking it up just in the short-term to fund the LOIs with a view to then reducing it later or would there be a greater consideration of other, obviously, non-debt financing sources depending on timing of those LOIs versus the asset sales?

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think we're comfortable taking the leverage up, knowing that, having confidence in the asset sales a little bit. But we're also mindful that we need to be prudent and not take it up too high.

Robert J. Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Alan Andreini for any closing remarks.

Alan Andreini -- Investor Relations

Thank you all for participating in today's conference call. We look forward to updating you after Q2.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

Duration: 43 minutes

Call participants:

Alan Andreini -- Investor Relations

Joseph P. Adams Jr. -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities LLC -- Analyst

Chris Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Rob Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Unidentified Participant -- -- Analyst

Robert J. Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

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