Welcome to the final race of the 2017 Cup Series season.
Who’s your pick for the title? Martin Truex is the favorite based off his performance throughout the 2017 season, but he’s not the best driver historically at Homestead. That honor goes to Kevin Harvick, whose stats are mindboggling.
Here are how the four drivers racing for the championship fare at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the site of Sunday’s championship race.
Kyle Busch (12 starts)
Top 10s: 5
Average finish: 19.8
Busch’s win came in 2015, when he held off Harvick for the race win and the championship. Busch was in the final four a year ago and finished sixth. He’s finished in the top 10 in four of his last five races at Homestead, so his stats are a bit misleading. We’ll be surprised if Busch finishes outside the top 10 on Sunday barring a late-race restart crash or something.
Brad Keselowski (9 starts)
Top 10s: 3
Average finish: 15.9
Speaking of late-race restart crashes, the contact between Joey Logano and Carl Edwards that sparked a massive crash in last year’s finale collected Keselowski. His 35th-place finish in that race was the worst of his career at Homestead. And it also broke a streak of three-straight top-six finishes. He led 86 laps in 2015 on the way to a third-place finish behind Busch and Harvick.
Martin Truex Jr. (12 starts)
Top 10s: 7
Average finish: 12.3
Truex hasn’t finished in the top 10 at Homestead since he finished seventh in 2013, his final start with Michael Waltrip Racing. He probably would have gotten a top-10 finish last year but, like Keselowski, was caught up in that crash. And Truex’s car ended up enveloped in a fireball.
Truex is the favorite for the title based off his performance at intermediate tracks in 2017, but the guy who gets favorite status based off his past Homestead performance is next.
Kevin Harvick (16 starts)
Top 10s: 14
Average finish: 6.9
Yes, Harvick has 14 top-10 finishes in 16 races. A 15th in 17 won’t be good enough for the title if it’s not a top three finish. But Harvick has gotten good at getting those at Homestead. He won the race and the championship in 2014, finished second in 2015 and was third last season. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 at Homestead since finishing 19th in 2007.
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