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Gas prices could fall below $4 per gallon by late October, analyst says

Gas prices could fall below $4 per gallon by October if oil remains at current levels, says one analyst.

The recent downward trend in gasoline prices is still in its early-mid point stage. However, "if the oil market stayed at these levels, we could see the national retail gas price go below $4 per gallon by late October," Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates wrote in a note on Wednesday.

"That is a long time from now and in between we have a Hurricane season and we have yet to see the impact of the European Union phased in ban of Russian oil purchases. But there is some reason for optimism," he added.

One gas expert predicts the national average could fall below $4 per gallon before the end of summer.

“We're seeing big declines across many areas of the country and that should continue," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy recently told Yahoo Finance Live.

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed a 5% year-on-year decline in gasoline demand in the last four weeks.

Gas prices over the $6.00 mark are advertised at a Mobil Station in Santa Monica, California, U.S., May 23, 2022. REUTERS/David Swanson
Gas prices over the $6.00 mark are advertised at a Mobil Station in Santa Monica, California, U.S., May 23, 2022. REUTERS/David Swanson

"I expect that trend to continue as the consumer wrestles with high prices. A 5% decline in gasoline consumption is a significant amount—it is about 400,000 barrels per day. I think we keep in mind that a fair amount of people are now working from home compared to pre pandemic 2019 and that is permanent demand destruction," added Lipow.

The national average for gasoline in the U.S. has fallen over the last month to $4.47 per gallon as of July 20, according to AAA.

Oil prices have come down considerably over the few weeks amid concerns of slowing demand, and a strong dollar. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) futures for August delivery settled 1.88% lower at $102.26. Brent futures (BZ=F) closed down at $106.92.

Ines is a stock market reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @ines_ferre

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