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Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

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Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK)
Q2 2019 Earnings Call
Aug 08, 2019, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:


Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Genco Shipping & Trading Limited second-quarter 2019 earnings conference call and presentation. Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Genco's website at www.gencoshipping.com. To inform everyone, today's conference is being recorded and is now being webcast at the company's website, www.gencoshipping.com.

[Operator instructions] A replay of the conference will be accessible at any time during the next two weeks by dialing (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820 and entering the passcode 3272187. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.

Peter Allen -- Vice President, Finance

Good morning. Before in our presentation, I note that in this conference call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements use words such as anticipate, budget, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe and other words in terms of similar meaning in connection with the discussion of potential future events, circumstances or future operating or financial performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and observations.

For a discussion of factors that could cause results to differ, please see the company's press release that was issued yesterday, the materials relating to this call posted on the company's website and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and the company's reports subsequently filed with the SEC. At this time, I would like to introduce John Wobensmith, chief executive officer of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited.



John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genco's second-quarter 2019 conference call. I will begin today's call by reviewing our second quarter and year-to-date highlights. We will then discuss our financial results for the quarter and the industry's current fundamentals and then open up the call for questions.

Turning to Slide 5, we review Genco's second quarter and year-to-date highlights. During the first half of the year, we continued to outperform our benchmarks, advance our comprehensive IMO 2020 strategy and further strengthen our fleet profile and earnings power. In the year-to-date, our focus remained on drawing upon our active commercial strategy and our barbell approach to fleet composition, maintaining exposure to both the major and minor bulk commodities. The benefits of this approach have been evident throughout 2019 as the relative stability of the minor bulks, supported earnings earlier in the year.

While toward the end of Q2 and into Q3, we have begun once again to realize the upside potential of our modern Capesize fleet. An important differentiator of Genco is that we maintain this upside potential of the iron ore trade through the ownership of '17 Capesize vessels, while the remaining fleet of 41 minor bulk vessels that primarily transfer commodities, such as grain, bauxite, fertilizers and cement, among various other commodities, is expected to provide us with a steadier stream of cash flows. Regarding the progress of our IMO 2020 strategy, we have completed the fitting of scrubbers on four of our Capesize vessels to date and anticipate the balance of our Capesize fleet to be fitted with scrubbers by year-end before the deadline of January 1, 2020. Furthermore, we have continued our fleet modernization efforts following the sale of our last 1990s built vessel in Q1, we agreed to sell our oldest remaining vessel, the GENCO CHALLENGER, a 2003-built handysize vessel.

Our success in completing two separate acquisitions of modern fuel-efficient vessels last year, while divesting older tonnage has reduced the average age of our fleet by approximately two years, while growing our fleet by nearly 10% on a deadweight-ton basis. Turning to Slide 6. We have outlined our commercial-operating platform. Our active commercial strategy, which incorporates voyage charters and direct-cargo liftings, while leveraging our in-house relationships and commercial expertise, has led to strong results through the first half of the year.

Specifically, over this period, our time-charter equivalent of $8,341 per day has resulted in an outperformance of the relative -- relevant adjusted Baltic Exchange Benchmark subindices by approximately $700 per day, leading to incremental net income of approximately $7 million. Through June, our global commercial platform based in New York, Copenhagen and Singapore, booked over 200 fixtures on our 58 vessel fleet, which equates to over 400 fixtures on an annualized basis. Additionally, we increased our time chartered-in business to 640 days from just under 50 days in the prior-year period. We have also added an additional lever to our commercial strategy, which now encompasses chartering in vessels for short periods.

We've booked two such time charter-ins to date. Regarding our chartering strategy to date for our Capesize vessels, we chose to maintain a short-term fixture approach in anticipation of a recovery in freight rates to ensure that we did not lock in longer-term coverage at softer levels. As contracts expire, vessels are being fixed in what has been a strong third quarter to date. We note that we have mostly been trading our Capesize vessels in the Pacific instead of our usual approach of maintaining exposure to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins as we set up ships for drydocking and scrubber installation.

As for our minor bulk fleet, we have outperformed our benchmarks by approximately $900 per day, while strategically repositioning select vessels to key regions in anticipation of a stronger third-quarter market and rebalancing our positional exposure given our upcoming drydockings. These measures, together with a stronger market, have led to an improved fixtures so far in Q3 at $11,640 per day and 57% above second-quarter time-charter-equivalent results, highlighting the operating leverage of the company, as well as our opportunistic charter strategy. Furthermore, as the drybulk market has significantly improved in recent months, we continuously evaluate all of our capital allocation options. While we are positive on the supply and demand fundamentals of the drybulk industry, as outlined on Slide 7, we do feel it is important to put into perspective that we are only two months into this upward move in freight rates.

We continue to believe that maintaining our strong balance sheet is prudent for the benefit of the company and shareholders. Separately, as outlined on Slide 8, we point out that 2019 is our heaviest operational year with 35 of our 58 vessels, representing 60% of our fleet, entering the shipyard at some point during the year for scheduled drydockings, as well as the installation of scrubbers and ballast water-treatment systems. Part of these capital expenditures will be funded from existing cash on hand. We view these investments in our fleet as initiatives that we believe will be beneficial over the long term for both the company and shareholders.

As outlined on Slide 9, shipping accounts were approximately 90% of global trade and is an essential link of the global economy. The upcoming environmental regulations represent an important shift to dramatically reduce air emissions. As the maritime industry works collectively to accomplish this goal, at Genco, we are also doing our part to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable shipping, as presented on Slide 10. As one of the largest owners of drybulk vessels in the world, we understand the need to run a safe and responsible business built for the long term.

As such, we have taken several steps over the last few years, including the installation of Mewis Ducts and trim optimization software on many of our vessels, leading to considerable fuel savings as well as the collection of real-time speed and consumption data for our fleet to optimize performance. Additionally, we have added modern fuel-efficient vessels that reduce fuel consumption, while selling older, less-efficient fuel tonnage. This will be a continued emphasis for the company, as we seek opportunities to further grow our fleet going forward. In terms of our current fleet, 93% of our vessels are rated four or better by RightShip, while 95% of our fleet has an A through E Greenhouse Gas Environmental Rating.

Furthermore, we partner with various organizations to move the shipping industry forward, while striving to make a difference in our local communities. From a corporate governance perspective, as a U.S. filer, we focus on being transparent and accountable and maintaining no related party transactions. I will now turn the call over to Apostolos Zafolias, our chief financial officer, to go through our financials.

Apostolos Zafolias -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, John. Turning to Slide 12. Our financial results are presented. For the three and six months ended June 30, 2019, the company generated revenues of $83.6 million and $177 million, respectively.

This compares with revenues for the three and six months ended June 30, 2018, of $86.2 million and $163.1 million, respectively. Second quarter of 2019, the company recorded a net loss of $34.5 million or $0.83 basic and diluted loss per share. Excluding $13.9 million in noncash vessel impairment charges, as well as a $0.2 million noncash impairment of the operating lease right-of-use asset, adjusted net loss for the quarter was $20.4 million. This compares to a net loss of $1.1 million or $0.03 basic and diluted loss per share for the second quarter of 2018.

For the six months ended June 30, 2019, the company recorded a net loss of $42.3 million or $1.01 basic and diluted loss per share. This compares to a net loss of $56.9 million or $1.62 basic and diluted loss per share for the six months ended June 30, 2018. Turning to Slide 13. We present key-balance-sheet items as of June 30, 2019.

Our cash position, including restricted cash, was $165.4 million. Our total assets were $1.6 billion and consist primarily of the vessels in our fleet and cash. Our total debt outstanding, gross of $15 million of unamortized debt issuance costs and inclusive of the current portion of long-term debt, was $513.7 million as of June 30, 2019. Moving to Slide 14.

Our utilization rate was 97.7% for the second quarter. Our TCE for the second quarter was $7,412 per vessel per day, which compares to $10,964 per vessel per day recorded in the same period of last year. The decrease in TCE was primarily due to lower rates achieved by the majority of the vessels in our fleet during the second quarter of this year versus last year. As previously highlighted, we have since benefited from the improving market fundamentals having a fixed -- having fixed a TCE of $11,640 per vessel per day, 64% of our Q3 available days or 57% higher than our second-quarter TCE.

Daily vessel operating expenses were $4,615 per-vessel-per-day for the second quarter and $4,518 per-vessel-per-day through the first half of the year, which is slightly below our budget of $4,525 per-vessel-per-day for the year. Turning to Slide 15. We highlight our favorable debt structure, which consists of two credit facilities. These two facilities have enabled us to simplify our capital structure, while providing Genco added flexibility in regard to additional indebtedness, potential dividends and vessel acquisitions.

Additionally, we provide balance-sheet items reflecting our strong liquidity position of $165 million. Of note, we incurred $10.4 million of scrubber-related expenses through the first six months of this year, of which approximately $9 million can be drawn down under our $495 million-credit facility to further strengthen our position. We evaluate our capital allocation strategy on an ongoing basis, weighing both the short- and long-term impact of liquidity uses. Our strong balance sheet and barbell approach to fleet composition have been a differentiating factor for Genco in 2019 and remain key pillars to the company's strategy.

Moving to Slide 16. We outline our third-quarter estimated cash-breakeven rates. We anticipate Genco's cash-breakeven rate to be approximately $12,600 per vessel per day for the third quarter of 2019. Included in this figure is a drydocking associated with 20 of our vessels for the quarter.

In addition, we expect to incur onetime costs of $3.2 million associated with the installation of ballast water treatment systems on certain of our vessels during the third quarter. We've also provided further detail on these breakeven rates in the appendix of our presentation for your reference. I will now turn the call over to Peter Allen, our drybulk-market analyst, to discuss the industry fundamentals.

Peter Allen -- Vice President, Finance

Thank you, Apostolos. I'll begin with Slide 18 which represents daily spot rates for the sub-indices of the Baltic Dry Index. During the second quarter of 2019, there was an overall uplift in freight rates relative to the first quarter with the improvement accelerating rapidly toward the end of June and subsequently into Q3 to date. Specifically, Capesize rates rose from an early April low of approximately $3,500 to a five-year high of nearly $33,000, a 9.5 times increase in less than four months.

We do note that freight rates have pulled back from recent highs of late, but still stand at strong levels at over $23,000. Several factors have led to the two vastly different markets we have experienced in the first and second halves of this year, as outlined on Slide '19. In particular, earlier in the year, seasonal developments, such as increased newbuilding deliveries, the Lunar New Year celebration and weather-related cargo disruptions that traditionally lead to a weaker Q1 market were exacerbated by the Vale dam incident. The combination of these factors resulted in a meaningful decline in cargo availability, hampering the iron ore trade and Capesize rate, specifically.

These market conditions led to a sharp increase in vessel scrapping, keeping a lid on net fleet growth and disincentivizing owners to balance their ships to the Atlantic due to the lack of Vale iron ore cargoes. Towards the end of June and into the second half of 2018, operations at the Brucutu mine restarted leading to an improvement in iron-ore volumes from Vale. The aggregate impact of more iron-ore cargoes and a shortage of vessels in the region resulted in a squeeze in the Atlantic Basin and a subsequent spike in Capesize rates. Of note, Vale has indicated a substantial improvement in sales volume in the coming months, having reiterated 2019 sales guidance of approximately 320 million tons.

Based on the company's actual sales during the first half of the year and their full-year guidance, this implies that 42 million tons more iron ore will be sold in the second half of 2018, as compared to the first half, an increase of over 30%. Turning to Page 20. Driving the demand level for iron ore has been record-steel output in China. With steel production having increased by 10% in the year-to-date and a tightness of seaborne iron ore, a major drawdown of iron-ore port inventories occurred in China to fill the supply gap.

These inventory levels fell to as low as 115 million tons from over 160 million tons last year. Limited iron-ore supply led to prices reaching well over $100 per ton, further incentivizing iron-ore miners to ship more of the commodity to take advantage of these multiyear high prices. We note that recently the price of iron ore has retreated to just over $90 per ton. In terms of the potential iron ore restocking period in China, we believe this could occur when the price of the commodity stabilizes.

Moving to Page 21. We touched on some key catalysts of the minor bulk trade. We are now in South American grain season, during which Brazil is expected to continue with strong soybean shipments to China. We expect Brazil, along with Argentina, to continue to increase market share of China's soybean shipments, given uncertainties around the U.S.-China trade relationship.

We also believe that any potential demand destruction due to the African swine flu currently affecting the hog population in China to be netted off U.S. soybean shipments when North American grain season typically ramps up in Q4 and into Q1. On Slide 22, we highlight the supply side of the equation. Earlier in the year, there was a prompt response to market conditions through increased scrapping and slippage of newbuilding deliveries.

Scrapping in the year-to-date has risen to five million deadweight tons, already surpassing last year's total, resulting in net fleet growth of approximately 3% on an annualized basis. Additionally, overall fleetwide productivity has been impacted by owners preparation ahead of the January 1, 2020, IMO compliance date, in which a substantial portion of the global fleet is undergoing scrubber retrofitting. In terms of the order book, vessel contracting has been relatively limited so far this year, leading to a stable order book as a percentage of the fleet at approximately 11%, which compares to 7% of the current on-the-water drybulk fleet that is greater than or equal to 20 years old. Since 2010, newbuilding deliveries have fallen by nearly 25% in the second half of the year, as compared to the first half.

On top of this, traditionally tightening, supply picture since 2010, iron-ore volumes from Australia and Brazil have increased by 12% on average in the second half of the year, as compared to the first half. These two factors have historically helped contribute to tighter markets toward year-end and appear to be playing out once again this year. This concludes our presentation, and we'd be now happy to take your questions.

Questions & Answers:


Operator

[Operator instructions] Thank you. Our first question will come from Randy Giveans, Jefferies.

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

How's the day gentlemen. How's it going?

Peter Allen -- Vice President, Finance

Good morning Randy.

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

So, yes, a few questions for me. The first thing is going to be multifaceted. I know you appreciate that. The incredible rally in drybulk spot rates has, obviously, been pretty evident this summer, but how has that impacted the one-year time-charter rates and asset values in the recent months? For example, you recently agreed to sell the CHALLENGER for what it looks like $5.3 million.

What would this price have been back in May? And also for the time charter rates, are you seeing any premiums for those with scrubbers on the Capesizes? And if so, is it $2,000, $4,000, $6,000 a day?

Apostolos Zafolias -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. So let's talk about asset values for a second. The difference between May and now in the handysize market, I don't think values have moved all that much, maybe what I would say is there's more liquidity that's come back into the market. So you're not having to take a discount from last done.

We felt that was a pretty strong sale that we're able to get on that age of a ship with -- that has drydocking and a ballast water-treatment system that still needs to be installed. I think in general, though, asset values, particularly in the larger ships, have started to move back up again. And I would anticipate, as people get more and more comfortable with the recovery going into the second half and then into 2020, those asset values will continue to move up. On the time-charter market, in terms of Capes, I still think it's a little too early.

We haven't seen too much -- too many time charters that have been done, basis a scrubber-fitted ship. And I think as you get closer to the end of the year and you have the IMO 2020 fuel switchover, that's when you'll start to see the premiums in the time charter market versus a shift that is -- that does not have a scrubber onboard. But the -- so to put into perspective, the time charter market today for, say, a five-year-old Cape is probably somewhere between $19,000 and $20,000-a-day for a year. And you would expect that when you do get into looking at charters with scrubbers, you should hope -- you should be able to get a $4,000 to $5,000 premium because of the scrubber install.

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Perfect. OK. Yes, so it certainly seems like asset values on the larger stuff, it's been a very illiquid market, so it seems like the current prices should be higher than last done in July, June, for that matter. All right.

Second question, I think there's been, obviously, some -- go ahead.

Apostolos Zafolias -- Chief Financial Officer

I was just going to say, I think you're right, Randy. And I think the -- one of the more important things is that there is liquidity back in the S&P market. There are transactions being done, Capes all the way down to the Handysize, which a few months ago, it was pretty stagnant.

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got it. OK. And then one more question here. So there have been, obviously, some headlines of excessive delays for scrubber retrofits recently.

But looking at your scrubber, capex, timing for retrofits, you're still guiding to all 17 Capsizes being completed this year. So I guess, two-part question. What's causing the delays for others? Is it equipment? Is it shipyard space? And then what makes you confident that those delays won't push you into 2020?

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Look, I think there's a few things that are effect -- that are causing the delays. I think some of the yards probably overbook their slots and waiting periods may be a little bit longer. And so I think there's been some overpromising on the yard front. I think there have been -- there's also been some equipment procurement issues, particularly on the piping -- discharge piping and getting logistics setup.

In China, you've also got some -- a lot of these scrubbers are coming from Europe. So there are logistical issues. With that, I think, in China, in particular, where a lot of these are -- installations are being done, there has been a lot of rain over the last couple of months. There has been currently a lot of heat and hot weather, which has affected the working conditions there.

As it pertains to Genco, we are highly confident we will have all of our scrubbers installed by the end of the year. As you know, we have done four so far. And pretty -- we actually did those in pretty quick succession. Those were done really in the late June through July time period, four of the ships were done.

And we're very confident on the other 13 getting done before the end of the year. That doesn't mean that -- within the scheduling, there have been some delays by one week or two, but we've been able to logistically work around that from a commercial standpoint and work with the yards. And that's why I have the confidence that everything will be done before year-end.

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Do you think? Good. We are looking forward to seeing the next few months here. Thank you.

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question will come from Amit Mehrotra, Deutsche Bank.

Chris Snyder -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. This is Chris Snyder on for Amit. So the first question is just what do you think caused the Cape recovery to be so strong and so sharp? Obviously, we have Vale ramping, but overall, export volumes out of Brazil are still down year on year and really below expectations heading into the year. So was it really aggressive ramp just the result of Capes being positioned in the Pacific for scrubber installations? Or maybe just the global fleet got spread out as other regions are maybe using production to take advantage of high prices?

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Look, I think it's a few things. I think it's Vale coming back online quicker than what was anticipated in the market, both in terms of Brucutu coming online, but also their logistical system being able to shift production more into S11D. I think that took people by surprise. And because of that, there were not a lot of ships positioned in the Atlantic.

And so the Atlantic market got squeezed and really pushed the index rates up. I agree with you. I think a lot of the ships were trading in the Pacific because of the Vale situation, but also because of scrubber installs. And we really have started to see the beginning of a big push and a lot of activity in the yard on the scrubber side, which is taking ships out of the market also.

So from a simple supply standpoint, supply of ships being able to lift cargoes, that number is being reduced because of the scrubber installs. And we certainly expect that to continue through the end of the year. So I think it's a combination of things, but I think one of the big things is Vale coming back online quicker.

Chris Snyder -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

So the Cape market has kind of pulled back here over the last couple of weeks just as some of that supply is now returning back into the Atlantic. Can you maybe just talk about where the -- how the fundamentals in the Atlantic stand right now? Do you see -- could there still be some more downward pressure? Or do you think that the market now maybe in the low- to mid-20 range is kind of starting to be more of a stable environment?

Peter Allen -- Vice President, Finance

It seems to be settling out. If you look at the FFAs, that paper will certainly tell you that things are stable. I -- we still anticipate another push upwards on rates before the end of the year. I also would tell you, we're -- from a seasonal standpoint, I think we're taking an overall pause in the iron ore market.

And with the price of iron ore having dropped pretty quickly over the last couple of weeks, that's usually a short-term phenomenon in the sense that people pulled back on their purchases. So as soon as that price stabilizes again, I think you're going to see more buyers come back into the market and Cape rates should continue to move back up. But I -- we do feel that there's a fairly stable floor right now that is set in on the Capesize sector.

Chris Snyder -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

And then next question and John, you touched on this already, but just around fleet positioning. And I believe last summer, you repositioned the chunk of the midsized fleet. It's kind of weighed on Q2 results, but said you guys up for a better second half. Did you undertake similar repositioning this summer? And is it really or mostly just Supras in anticipation of the grain season?

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Yes. OK. So a few things. So if you look at last year, we actually did quite a bit of that repositioning and backhauling in Q3, which set up for a very strong fourth quarter.

This year, we've done a lot of that in the second quarter in anticipation of a strong Black Sea-Med region, which is panned out, and you can see it in the forward fixtures in the midsize and smaller ships going into Q3. And on the Capes, as I said, because of the scrubber installs, we have been trading those ships exclusively in the Pacific. As those ships come out of the yard with their scrubber installed, we'll go back to a more balanced approach in the Capesize sector of having some exposure in the Atlantic and some exposure in the Pacific. I mean, I look at what we did for the first half of the year, which compared to the index is very strong, and we have a stated goal of beating the index of $500 per day for over a calendar year, and we still have all the confidence that, that's going to pan out as we get to December 31.

And I think if you look at the forward fixtures, they're very strong for Q3.

Chris Snyder -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Yes. And then if I could just ask one more on the grain trade and especially because you guys have kind of did the repositioning a little earlier. If I remember correctly, last year, as South America took share from the U.S. and international grain markets, we kind of saw a lot of that grain trade pulled forward into Q3 and then the Q4 volumes kind of disappointed.

Is that maybe why you repositioned a little earlier this year? And do you kind of think that's the way the market is setting up for this year?

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

I think there's a little bit of a difference this year over last year. So the Black Sea and Med has -- that has come a lot earlier than what we saw last year, which is, again, why we were repositioning in the second quarter to hopefully capture that, which has proven successful. The other difference this year versus last year is that last year, Argentina went through a drought. So there was not a lot of soybean, there was not a lot of corn that was exported out of Argentina.

That situation has reversed this year, where there's more soybean and a lot more corn availability for export out of Argentina. And I would tell you, Brazil on the soybean front is probably flat to slightly below last year's numbers. So we still expect East Coast to South America to remain strong for quite some time.

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our next question will from Erik Hovi, Clarksons.

Erik Hovi -- Clarksons Securities -- Analyst

Hi guys. Good morning. So you talked about repositioning into the Pacific for the scrubber installations and Vale coming back online. So regarding the Capesize market for the remainder of the year, it's now Vale's VLOC is going to do the same transition over to the specification to scrubbers.

How is that in your view going to affect the market for the remainder of the year?

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

On the Vale VLOCs?

Erik Hovi -- Clarksons Securities -- Analyst

Yes.

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Yes. Look, I mean, most of those vessels are under contract. So clearly, taking those ships out of service will most likely require more spot fixtures coming out of Vale. You couple that again with the fact that you've got a recovery that's going on, on volumes overall.

We obviously expect that to be a positive. I look at those VLOCs in terms of the entire Capesize fleet and looking at the numbers that are going to be coming off-line, basically, that started in July, all the way through the first quarter of next year to have scrubber installs. But particularly, those VLOCs that in the Atlantic should be very helpful to the Cape market.

Erik Hovi -- Clarksons Securities -- Analyst

And you guys are also, I guess, getting half way, I guess, with the Capesizes going back into the market, hopefully, turning stronger due to multiple factors there, so. I understand...

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Yes. We're -- well, the only thing I was going to say was, we're obviously talking about the second half of the year, which is fine. But -- and we're positive on that. But we're also looking forward to 2020 from just a pure supply and demand standpoint, where demand is projected to outstrip the number of ships delivering by one point to two points.

That is setting up also for a nice part of the recovery going into next year. A lot of that is driven again by Vale continuing to ramp up and will probably most likely get back to at least 2018 levels in terms of tons of iron ore shipped.

Erik Hovi -- Clarksons Securities -- Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 36 minutes

Call participants:

Peter Allen -- Vice President, Finance

John Wobensmith -- Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping and Trading Limited

Apostolos Zafolias -- Chief Financial Officer

Randy Giveans -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Chris Snyder -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Erik Hovi -- Clarksons Securities -- Analyst

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