Genesis Energy's (NZSE:GNE) stock up by 3.7% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study Genesis Energy's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Genesis Energy is:
10% = NZ$283m ÷ NZ$2.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each NZ$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made NZ$0.10 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of Genesis Energy's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE
When you first look at it, Genesis Energy's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 5.4% doesn't go unnoticed by us. Especially when you consider Genesis Energy's exceptional 37% net income growth over the past five years. That being said, the company does have a slightly low ROE to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Therefore, the growth in earnings could also be the result of other factors. Such as- high earnings retention or the company belonging to a high growth industry.
As a next step, we compared Genesis Energy's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 5.4%.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Genesis Energy is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Genesis Energy Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Genesis Energy has very a high three-year median payout ratio of 284% suggesting that the company's shareholders are getting paid from more than just the company's earnings. In spite of this, the company was able to grow its earnings significantly, as we saw above. Although, it could be worth keeping an eye on the high payout ratio as that's a huge risk. Our risks dashboard should have the 3 risks we have identified for Genesis Energy.
Moreover, Genesis Energy is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of nine years of paying a dividend. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 167% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Genesis Energy is predicted to decline to 5.0% despite the anticipated decrease in the payout ratio. We reckon that there could probably be other factors that could be driving the forseen decline in the company's ROE.
Overall, we feel that Genesis Energy certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Namely, its high earnings growth, which was probably achieved due to its respectable ROE. However, the considerably low reinvestment rate does diminish our excitement to a certain extent. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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