Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) sheds 5.1% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth
Genuine Parts Company (NYSE:GPC) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 10% in the last quarter. But in three years the returns have been great. In fact, the share price is up a full 106% compared to three years ago. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 5.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Genuine Parts
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Genuine Parts was able to grow its EPS at 24% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We don't think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 27% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Genuine Parts has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Genuine Parts will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Genuine Parts the TSR over the last 3 years was 123%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Genuine Parts has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 37% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Genuine Parts you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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