- By GF Value
The stock of Glencore PLC (OTCPK:GLNCY, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $8.18 per share and the market cap of $54.7 billion, Glencore PLC stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Glencore PLC is shown in the chart below.
Because Glencore PLC is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Glencore PLC has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.04, which which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. The overall financial strength of Glencore PLC is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Glencore PLC is poor. This is the debt and cash of Glencore PLC over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Glencore PLC has been profitable 6 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $142.3 billion and loss of $0.28 a share. Its operating margin is 1.41%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Glencore PLC at 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Glencore PLC over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Glencore PLC's 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 69% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Glencore PLC's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -37.5%, which ranks worse than 88% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Glencore PLC's ROIC is 1.68 while its WACC came in at 8.95. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Glencore PLC is shown below:
Overall, the stock of Glencore PLC (OTCPK:GLNCY, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 88% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. To learn more about Glencore PLC stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.