Monday is shaping up to be a brutal day for exchange traded funds that hold Brazilian equities after President Dilma Rousseff narrowly defeated challenger Senator Aecio Neves in Sunday’s runoff election.
In Brazil’s closest election since 1985, Rousseff beat Neves 52% to 48%. As had been reported numerous times in the run-up to Sunday’s vote, financial markets had shown an overt preference for any candidate but Rousseff. [Rousseff Rattles Brazil ETFs]
Brazil ETFs, including the largest the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) , rallied at various points in the summer when it appeared Marina Silva was a credible threat to Rousseff. The pattern repeated after the Oct. 5 first round election that saw Neves emerge as the challenger to Rousseff. However, Brazilian stocks, EWZ and other Brazil ETFs were increasingly volatile in the days leading up to Sunday’s election.
Last Thursday, EWZ tumbled on heavy volume only to surge 4.3% last Friday on turnover that was nearly twice the daily average. [Pre-Election Look at Brazil ETFs]
Global investors are already showing their displeasure with the idea of another Rousseff term. In Monday’s Asian session, the Next Funds Ibovespa Linked ETF, a tracking ETF for Brazil’s benchmark equity index trading in Tokyo, plunged nearly8%.
That ETF has about $26 million in assets under management, a far cry from the $5.3 billion held by EWZ. The Next Funds ETF also is not a carbon copy of EWZ in terms of order of holdings and weights, but as an Ibovespa tracking fund, it does hold some of the marquee names also found in EWZ, such as Petrobras (PBR) and Vale (VALE).
As the chart below shows, Monday could be a rough day for EWZ and rival ETFs trading in the U.S.
Next Funds Ibovespa Linked ETF
Chart Courtesy: Bloomberg
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.