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Gold Miners ETF Inches Toward a Breakout


The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) , the largest gold miners ETF, has surged 12.3% over the past 90 days, a gain that is roughly 10 times better than that of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and other ETF backed by physical holdings of gold.

Year-to-date, GDX has climbed 21.4%, making it one of the best non-leveraged ETFs on the market, but even with those superlatives, GDX and other high-flying miners ETFs could more upside ahead of them. A lot more, in fact.

Citing Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners, Phil Pearlman notes on Yahoo Finance that for GDX “$27-$28 is the big resistance level to clear, and represents the neck-line of the pattern. A clean break above $28 would imply a measured move up to $36 , which would be a 28% move above the breakout.”

GDX closed at $26.75 Thursday and last closed above $27 on July 11. The ETF has not managed a close above $28 since September 2013.

From my vantage, the miners have been hated since they began breaking down in 2012. The lower they go, the more maligned by those nursing losses in the individual names and the GDX. The combination of a chart that is becoming more constructive and the negative sentiment can make for a great combination and so I am watching Krinsky’s 28 level along with the price of gold that remains in the same no man’s land mentioned earlier in this space,” said Pearlman.

Pearlman is correct in asserting miners and ETFs like GDX have been unloved. That scenario gave way to a monster rally for GDX and friends early this year when miners entered 2014 with bearish sentiment so extreme it had not been seen since the early 1980s. [Rare Opportunity in Gold Miners]

Gold miners are less unloved today than they were a year ago as highlighted by the $1 billion that has flowed into the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) this year. In addition to the aforementioned technical, miners look appealing at the fundamental level. [Miners Keep Beating Gold ETFs]

“With gold mining stocks trading at a 58% discount to 2011 levels, gold miners’ shares remain highly undervalued relative to fundamentals in our view. Although reserve depletion is an issue that still needs to be addressed for sustainable long-term growth of the sector, cost management has substantially improved miners’ profitability. With global growth finally starting to gain momentum and seasonality of gold demand historically buoying gold miners’ shares in the third quarter, we believe now may be a good time to raise exposure to gold miners. We maintain our positive view on gold miners and target broad miner valuations to move back to around 2x book value over the next few months,” said ETF Securities in a new research note out Wednesday.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF


ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.