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Gold Rally Can't Afford to Delay Its Resumption Much Longer

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Gold's probe of fresh highs came right on schedule Thursday. Scheduled for Friday is proof of whether the breakout attempt is valid, by extending higher without delay.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's test of 81.45 was followed by Thursday's gap up through it, which later held 81.45 intraday as support to suggest a new rally leg is underway.

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
Thursday's lower low more thoroughly tested 1.3333 whose break through the close would signal a new downleg underway.

Oct Contract GC; (GLD)
Narrow ranging had made at least a rally effort likely, which Thursday's test of 1381.00 began to fulfill. Overnight highs above 1382.00 have yet to be retested. Its retest isn't required before launching a downleg, which would gradually gain traction under 1361.00 and 1355.50.

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Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
More narrow sideways ranging under 24.00 Thursday, which at least opened by surging, as if to reassure us the patient still has a pulse. It will take more than that.

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30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Wednesday's late dip that filled the gap back to Monday's close came too late to recover, making it likely to extend down. New lows overnight did not quite attack the 128-14 target and Thursday's gap down reacted up into positive territory, but the pattern still requires at least one new low close.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (USO)
Thursday's slight firming did not derail the downleg's likely objectives at 103.25 or 102.65.

Natural Gas
Sep Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's gap up and probe above recent highs did not extend intraday, still being inhibited by the prior three sessions. A pullback would have been helpful, probably allowing the rally to resume. A test of 3.57 would be more revealing.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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