Goldman, BBVA Say Dollar Weakness to Boost Mexican Peso

Zijia Song and Michael O'Boyle

May 25, 2023 at 1:30 PM·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Analysts from Goldman Sachs & Co and XP Investimentos are betting a fresh bout of dollar weakness can fuel gains in the Mexican peso, the world’s best performing currency.

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The bullish calls come after the currency — dubbed the “super peso” because of its astounding rally — gave up some of its gains amid political noise at home and a global selloff amid US debt ceiling talks. Despite recent losses, the peso is still up 9.5% against the dollar this year, the best major currency in the world in that span.

“We believe that there is again room to see a return of the peso to 17.50 in the next few days,” said Miguel Angel Iturribarria, a strategist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria in Mexico.

The peso was little changed at 17.80 per dollar as of 1:15 p.m. in New York Thursday, outperforming an MSCI gauge of developing-nation currencies, which fell 0.5%.

A hawkish central bank, strong remittances and job market as well as the nearshoring trend have boosted the peso this year, according to Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs.

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While the peso looks expensive, Ramos expects it to extend gains in the medium term, even if this year’s rally pauses in the next few weeks.

“Current macro fundamentals suggest that the MXN can continue to deliver strong total returns even if spot appreciation subsides after a notable run,” Ramos wrote in a Wednesday note.

Banxico, as the central bank is known, ended one of Latin America’s most aggressive hiking cycles this month. Before the bank’s May 18 decision to hold interest rates, policymakers had delivered 15 consecutive increases since June 2021, pushing borrowing costs up 725 basis points.

“Once the dust settles on other fronts, like the debt ceiling, it should return to stronger levels and remain stable,” said Marco Oviedo, a senior strategist at XP.