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Gold's Corrective Bounce Has Ended

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Gold's plunge Wednesday proved its bounce was only a correction -- and that the correction has ended.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Tuesday night's dip was recovered into Wednesday's open, producing only an "inside day" that kept alive the pullback's momentum targeting 81.40.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Extending to fresh highs Tuesday night at 1.3128 was reversed in time for Wednesday's gap down, which extended to 1.3060. Back above 1.3095 would resume the rally next targeting 1.3140 with potential to 1.3325.

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Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
While Monday's action following Friday's surge had made Tuesday's rally likely, Tuesday's rally made Wednesday likely to reverse down. Closing any higher was not possible for a corrective bounce. Wednesday did reverse down, sharply. The open gapped down to the 1579.00 pullback limit, extended through its 1574.50 sell signal, and soon plunged to 1556.50. The drop should extend to fresh lows so long as 1574.50 isn't recovered.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Wednesday's 27.45 lows retraced 61.8% of Tuesday's rally from Monday's close. Unless 27.90 were recovered, the pullback is still targeting a test of 27.15 "lower prior highs."

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Despite having fulfilled and held 148-00 resistance, a new downleg was unlikely without yet retesting 148-00. But the drop extended down sharply Wednesday to 145-29. Almost any fresh low could lead to capitulation. Otherwise, a corrective bounce should begin almost immediately.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Wednesday's gap down held within a nickel of the 93.35 pullback limit, expending almost all available selling pressure without it gaining any traction. A complete retracement into positive territory recovered to fresh highs testing 94.75 to signal a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Tuesday's narrow ranging around Monday's lows down to 4.00 had trapped shorts without them gaining traction, so that any early strength Wednesday could rally sharply intraday. Potential up to Monday's 4.18 high was attacked to within $.02 before retracing. Extending higher through the EIA report would be credible for extending higher into and out of the weekend.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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