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Gold's Recent Pause May Be the Calm Before the Next Storm

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Is gold ready to complete its corrective drop? It continued chipping away at support for a third consecutive session Tuesday, while the US Dollar Index firmed to fresh highs.

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Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Having held its pullback limit Monday, the recovery firmed Tuesday to fresh highs attacking 83.75. So long as 83.50 holds as support, the rally can next target 84.20 and 84.45.

[More from Minyanville.com: Is the 30-Year Treasury About to Bounce? ]

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Tuesday's fresh low testing 1.2935 can extend to 1.2875 if 1.3000 isn't recovered first.

[More from Minyanville.com: Satyajit Das: Why the Currency Wars Matter ]

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday produced another intraday dip under 1429.50 to test 1420.00, which reacted up again. Its reaction held a retest of Friday's 1438.00 high, sending price back down under 1429.50, and maintaining the potential for extending to 1400.00.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Tuesday's gap down attacked 23.00 support before bouncing to almost fill the open's gap back up to Monday's 23.70 close, leaving outstanding the 22.95 pullback target.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
Despite gapping up above 144-24 and quickly extending higher to 145-04, the decline soon resumed to fresh lows under 143-30. Closing under 143-13 would put into play 142-20. Closing first above 144-24 would trigger at least a corrective bounce targeting 146-18.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
Monday's recovery did not extend any higher Tuesday. But the weaker open did not extend down intraday, so any strength above 96.00 is still likely to resume the rally targeting 98.10.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Tuesday's probe into the 3.95-4.00 range was more forceful than Monday's. But a close above 4.05 is still needed to target 4.16, whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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