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Gold's Sell-Off Back on Track

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: Gold's make-or-break point at Thursday's close plunged sharply through support to prove that it had been chipped away, suggesting a much deeper downleg underway. Can crude oil extend its rally simultaneously?

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
82.00 was barely attacked Friday, and not at all tested, which was the least requirement for signaling that momentum was reversing up.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's reaction down from 1.3266 after the Employment Situation report retraced only the 1.3200 origin of Thursday's last surge. That doesn't preclude retesting Thursday's high up to 1.3333.

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Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Resuming the decline after Thursday's retest of 1421.60 required literally plunging through 1410.00 to under 1390.00, or else the rally would extend sharply. Friday's reaction to the Employment Situation report did plunge, to test 1377.00. Closing under last week's 1385.00 lows now requires a second consecutive lower close Monday to confirm a new downleg is underway.

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Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's plunge from 22.70 extended down to the outstanding objective below at 21.80, which was still being tested at the close. Closing under 21.55 Monday would confirm a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's failed probe of "higher prior lows" before closing back under 141-12 did not preclude the pattern from still forming a bottom, but did require extra work to be done at its 139-16 and 139-04 lows. Friday's reaction to the Employment Situation report stopped optimistically short within 1 tick of the first objective, to all but ensure extending down to a fresh low.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Friday's test of the minimum 96.00 target up to 96.30 absorbed a negative knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report. The extra refueling all but ensures extending higher to the 98.10 target, so long as 95.65 now holds as support.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Ranging narrowly sideways Friday did not qualify as a second consecutive lower close, so Thursday's break isn't confirmed. That's not a buy signal, and it doesn't preclude extending down, but at least it clears the way for a buy signal to form.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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