Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRBK) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$20.0m||US$21.0m||US$21.8m||US$22.4m||US$23.0m||US$23.6m||US$24.1m||US$24.6m||US$25.1m||US$25.6m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 3.67%||Est @ 3.09%||Est @ 2.68%||Est @ 2.4%||Est @ 2.2%||Est @ 2.06%||Est @ 1.97%||Est @ 1.9%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8%||US$18.4||US$17.8||US$16.9||US$16.0||US$15.1||US$14.3||US$13.4||US$12.6||US$11.8||US$11.1|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$147m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$26m× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ 8.8%– 1.7%) = US$371m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$371m÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= US$160m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$307m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$7.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Green Brick Partners as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.289. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Green Brick Partners, There are three fundamental aspects you should look at:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Green Brick Partners has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does GRBK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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