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Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Beats Q1 Earnings Estimates

Zacks Equity Research
·3 mins read

Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.68 per share. This compares to loss of $1.06 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 111.76%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this ethanol production, marketing and commodities company would post a loss of $0.55 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.41, delivering a surprise of 25.45%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Green Plains, which belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, posted revenues of $632.87 million for the quarter ended March 2020, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.59%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $642.32 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Green Plains shares have lost about 63.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's decline of -12.4%.

What's Next for Green Plains?

While Green Plains has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Green Plains was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.60 on $780 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.78 on $3.08 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Chemical - Specialty is currently in the top 47% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

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Zacks Investment Research