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Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Reports Q2 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Zacks Equity Research

Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) came out with a quarterly loss of $1.13 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.78. This compares to loss of $0.02 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -44.87%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this ethanol production, marketing and commodities company would post a loss of $0.38 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.06, delivering a surprise of -178.95%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates.

Green Plains, which belongs to the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, posted revenues of $895.85 million for the quarter ended June 2019, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.85%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $986.84 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Green Plains shares have lost about 30% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 17%.

What's Next for Green Plains?

While Green Plains has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Green Plains was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.34 on $900 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.85 on $3.12 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Chemical - Specialty is currently in the bottom 18% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

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