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The Greenback Makes Gains on Safe-Haven Trades

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USD – United States Dollar

Industrial production figures for November released at 8:15, the print of 1.1% was slightly above expectations of 0.8% and previous of -0.8%; however, market reaction was somewhat limited at the time of the release. The focused attention for USD continues to be on the legal conclusion of phase one of the trade talks with China. In a trade war characterized by rhetoric and tit for tat tariffs, legal confirmation on things could put traders at ease. Once officially signed and formalized, the focus will no doubt turn to a much harder phase two. Crude Oil holds near 60 dollars a barrel as tension on the US-China trade disagreement ease, optimism, and growing investor demand have moved WTI higher. Equities continued their bullish trend hitting fresh highs globally as safe-haven currencies such as the USD and JPY retraced. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up both 23% and 28% for the year as sentiment remains positive into the festive period.

Key Movers

The pound has continued to drop off this morning to continue an underwhelming start to the week. Yesterday’s Markit PMI figures, which came in slightly below expectation, kicked things off. It remains to be the political sentiment that dictates the direction of the pound.
Election euphoria has now been replaced by a realization that a long road of trade talks lay ahead between the UK and EU. Reports that Boris Johnson intends to add a new clause to his Brexit bill that would legally block the ability to extend the transition period beyond the current deadline of December 31, 2020, could reignite the prospects of a no-deal Brexit and serve to weaken GBP.
Subsequently, GBP is trading back down to the pre-election levels of 1.73 against the CAD and 1.3145 against USD, respectively.
UK unemployment figures for the last three months are released at 09.30 this morning with the expectation of the jobless number rising to 3.9%, which could place further pressure on sterling.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.1129 – 1.1174 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.3131 – 1.3339 ▼

USD/CAD: 1.3151 – 1.3185 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6838 – 0.6886 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6564 – 0.6606 ▼


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