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The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s (NYSE:GBX) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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Greenbrier Companies' (NYSE:GBX) stock is up by a considerable 29% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Greenbrier Companies' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Greenbrier Companies

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Greenbrier Companies is:

5.8% = US$88m ÷ US$1.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to August 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.06 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Greenbrier Companies' Earnings Growth And 5.8% ROE

When you first look at it, Greenbrier Companies' ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 11%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. For this reason, Greenbrier Companies' five year net income decline of 24% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Greenbrier Companies' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.4% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Greenbrier Companies''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Greenbrier Companies Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 38% (that is, a retention ratio of 62%), the fact that Greenbrier Companies' earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Greenbrier Companies has paid dividends over a period of six years, which means that the company's management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Greenbrier Companies. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.