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Guess? (GES) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates, Rise Y/Y, View Up

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Guess?, Inc. GES posted robust second-quarter fiscal 2020 results, wherein both the top line and the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew year over year. Notably, the company’s top line witnessed year-over-year growth for the 12th straight time on the back of strength in Americas and Europe regions. Also, management raised its earnings view for fiscal 2020.

In fiscal 2020, management envisions adjusted earnings per share of $1.28-$1.36, including adverse currency impacts of around 8 cents. Notably, the guidance stands above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27. Earlier, management anticipated adjusted earnings per share of $1.19-$1.30 for fiscal 2020, including adverse currency impact of around 3 cents. Also, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company expects adjusted earnings of 15-18 cents for the third quarter. Bottom line is likely to be favorably impacted by a penny from currency fluctuations.

Quarter in Detail

Guess? posted adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 29 cents and increased 5.6% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Guess?, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise


Guess?, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Guess?, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Guess?, Inc. Quote

Net revenues amounted to $683.2 million that surpassed the consensus mark of $673.1 million. Moreover, the top line improved 5.8% year over year. On a constant-currency (cc) basis, revenues grew 8.8%. This upside can be attributed to solid sales in most regions, especially Europe and the Americas.

The company’s gross margin expanded nearly 180 basis points (bps) to 38.9%, owing to occupancy leverage and increased initial markups.

Also, adjusted operating profit came in at $47.9 million, up approximately 30% year over year. Adjusted operating margin rose 130 bps to 7%, driven by lower costs, expense leverage in Europe and greater initial markups in Americas Retail and Europe. This was partially offset by wage pressures, increase in advertising expenses and greater markdowns in Americas Retail.

Segment Performance

Revenues in the Americas Retail segment increased 0.9% year over year in U.S. dollar and 1.2% at cc. Further, retail comp sales, including e-commerce, improved 2% each in U.S. dollar and at cc, driven by improved conversions and UPTs. This marks the sixth successive quarter of positive comps.

Net revenues in the Americas Wholesale segment climbed 22.3% (up 22.4% at cc), backed by robust growth in U.S. department store and specialty business.

The Europe segment's revenues advanced 9.1% (up 14.1% at cc). Store openings, improvement in wholesale revenue and comps growth boosted the region’s performance. Retail comp sales, including e-commerce, dipped 3% in U.S. dollar, while it grew 1% at cc.

Asia revenues inched up 0.6% (up 5.2% at cc). Retail comp sales, including e-commerce, lost 13% (down 8% at cc) due to soft traffic in stores. Nonetheless, the company is positive about the long-term potential of this region.

Licensing revenues descended 5.9%, both in U.S. dollar and at cc.

Other Updates

The company exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $131.1 million, and long-term debt and finance lease obligations of $35.5 million. Further, stockholders’ equity was $554.9 million. Net cash used in operating activities during the first six months of fiscal 2020 amounted to $23 million.

Additionally, management approved a quarterly cash dividend of 11.25 cents per share, payable on Sep 27, 2019 to shareholders of record as of Sep 11, 2019.

Under the accelerated share repurchase (“ASR”) program, the company delivered 5.2 million shares in the first quarter and the remaining is expected to be delivered by the beginning of September after completion of the program.

The company repurchased roughly 0.7 million shares for nearly $11 million during the fiscal second quarter.  


Management is impressed with its quarterly outcome, given the solid revenue growth, efficient expense management and improved gross margin. The company is encouraged about its future prospects, courtesy of a robust global network, considerable brand strength and customer growth.

For fiscal 2020, net revenues are now guided to grow 3-3.5% (up 6-6.5% at cc). Earlier, the company projected revenues to increase 3.5-4.5% (up 6-7% at cc). Management expects adjusted operating margin to be in the range of 5.3-5.6% compared with the previous guidance of 4.8-5.2%.

For third-quarter fiscal 2020, the company anticipates net revenues to rise 2-3% (up 4.5-5.5% at cc). Adjusted operating margin is anticipated in the range of 3-3.5%. Foreign currency translation is projected to adversely impact operating margin by 10 bps.

Region-wise, net revenue growth in Americas Retail is likely to range down low-single digits in the third quarter, whereas it is expected to be flat to up low-single digits in fiscal 2020. Net revenue growth in Americas Wholesale is likely to be up low-single digits in the third quarter and up mid-single digits in fiscal 2020.

In Europe, net revenues are expected to increase mid-to-high-single digits in third quarter and up high-single digits in fiscal 2020. In Asia, net revenues are expected to range in between flat to up low-single digits in the third quarter and down low-single digits in fiscal 2020. Licensing revenues are anticipated to drop mid-single digits in both periods.

Shares of Guess? have lost close to 35% in the past six months against the industry’s growth of 17.2%.

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