By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (NYSE:WMS), which is up 84%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 38% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 41% in the last year , including dividends .
Advanced Drainage Systems isn't a profitable company, so it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last 3 years Advanced Drainage Systems saw its revenue grow at 3.6% per year. Considering the company is losing money, we think that rate of revenue growth is uninspiring. In that time the share price is up 23% per year, which is not unreasonable given the revenue gorwth. Ultimately, the important thing is whether the company is trending to profitability. In this sort of situation it can be worth putting the stock on your watchlist. If it can become profitable, then even moderate revenue growth could grow profits quickly.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Advanced Drainage Systems
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Advanced Drainage Systems, it has a TSR of 97% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Advanced Drainage Systems shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 12% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Advanced Drainage Systems by clicking this link.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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