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If You Had Bought Boral (ASX:BLD) Stock A Year Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 40% Loss, Today

Simply Wall St

The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Investors in Boral Limited (ASX:BLD) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 40%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 8.3%. Notably, shareholders had a tough run over the longer term, too, with a drop of 34% in the last three years. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 18% in thirty days. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

Check out our latest analysis for Boral

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unhappily, Boral had to report a 50% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 40% the share price fall. So despite the weak per-share profits, some investors are probably relieved the situation wasn't more difficult.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:BLD Past and Future Earnings, September 2nd 2019

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Boral the TSR over the last year was -35%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 8.3% in the last year, Boral shareholders lost 35% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.

Boral is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.