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If You Had Bought Farmers National Banc (NASDAQ:FMNB) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Made 38%

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Simply Wall St
·3 min read
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While Farmers National Banc Corp. (NASDAQ:FMNB) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 29% in the last quarter. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 38% in that time.

See our latest analysis for Farmers National Banc

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Farmers National Banc managed to grow its earnings per share at 22% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 6.7% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.80.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqCM:FMNB Past and Future Earnings April 2nd 2020
NasdaqCM:FMNB Past and Future Earnings April 2nd 2020

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Farmers National Banc's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Farmers National Banc's TSR for the last 5 years was 52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 12% in the twelve months, Farmers National Banc shareholders did even worse, losing 17% (even including dividends) . Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 8.8% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Farmers National Banc you should know about.

Farmers National Banc is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.