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If You Had Bought Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) Stock A Year Ago, You Could Pocket A 90% Gain Today

Simply Wall St

While Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX:FMG) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 10% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been pleasing. To wit, it had solidly beat the market, up 90%.

See our latest analysis for Fortescue Metals Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, Fortescue Metals Group actually saw its earnings per share drop 46%. So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

We haven't seen Fortescue Metals Group increase dividend payments yet, so the yield probably hasn't helped drive the share higher. It saw it's revenue decline by 12% over twelve months. Usually that correlates with a lower share price, but let's face it, the gyrations of the market are sometimes only as clear as mud.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:FMG Income Statement, August 25th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Fortescue Metals Group

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Fortescue Metals Group's TSR for the last year was 120%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Fortescue Metals Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 120% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 20% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.