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If You Had Bought Heritage Financial (NASDAQ:HFWA) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Made 55%

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Simply Wall St
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Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:HFWA) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 12% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. Unfortunately its return of 55% is below the market return of 58%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 25% decline over the last twelve months.

View our latest analysis for Heritage Financial

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Heritage Financial achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 25% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 9.2% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NasdaqGS:HFWA Past and Future Earnings, October 3rd 2019
NasdaqGS:HFWA Past and Future Earnings, October 3rd 2019

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Heritage Financial's TSR for the last 5 years was 80%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Heritage Financial shareholders are down 23% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.06%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 13% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

But note: Heritage Financial may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.