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If You Had Bought Kinsale Capital Group (NASDAQ:KNSL) Shares Three Years Ago You'd Have Earned 472% Returns

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We think that it's fair to say that the possibility of finding fantastic multi-year winners is what motivates many investors. But when you hold the right stock for the right time period, the rewards can be truly huge. One bright shining star stock has been Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:KNSL), which is 472% higher than three years ago. It's also good to see the share price up 27% over the last quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 14% in 90 days).

Check out our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Kinsale Capital Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 41% per year. In comparison, the 79% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 79.32.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kinsale Capital Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Kinsale Capital Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 479%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Kinsale Capital Group shareholders have gained 155% (in total) over the last year. That's including the dividend. So this year's TSR was actually better than the three-year TSR (annualized) of 80%. These improved returns may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Kinsale Capital Group that you should be aware of.

Kinsale Capital Group is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.