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If You Had Bought NACCO Industries (NYSE:NC) Shares Three Years Ago You'd Have A Total Return Of 2.2%

Simply Wall St

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term NACCO Industries, Inc. (NYSE:NC) shareholders, since the share price is down 40% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 52%. On top of that, the share price is down 25% in the last week. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Check out our latest analysis for NACCO Industries

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, NACCO Industries actually managed to grow EPS by 19% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

The modest 1.6% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Arguably the revenue decline of 29% per year has people thinking NACCO Industries is shrinking. After all, if revenue keeps shrinking, it may be difficult to find earnings growth in the future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:NC Income Statement, November 5th 2019

If you are thinking of buying or selling NACCO Industries stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, NACCO Industries's TSR for the last 3 years was 2.2%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that NACCO Industries shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 32% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 6.4% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. If you would like to research NACCO Industries in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.