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If You Had Bought Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) Stock Five Years Ago, You Could Pocket A 241% Gain Today

Simply Wall St

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. One great example is Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX:NCM) which saw its share price drive 241% higher over five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 12% gain in the last three months.

See our latest analysis for Newcrest Mining

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years of share price growth, Newcrest Mining moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Newcrest Mining share price has gained 60% in three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 19% each year. That makes the EPS growth rather close to the annualized share price gain of 17% over the same period. So one might argue that investor sentiment towards the stock hss not changed much over time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:NCM Past and Future Earnings, September 21st 2019

We know that Newcrest Mining has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Newcrest Mining will grow revenue in the future.


What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Newcrest Mining's TSR for the last 5 years was 254%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Newcrest Mining shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 84% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 29%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.