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If You Had Bought Peugeot (EPA:UG) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Made 40%

Simply Wall St

It hasn't been the best quarter for Peugeot S.A. (EPA:UG) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 15% in that time. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 40%, less than the market return of 58%.

View our latest analysis for Peugeot

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last half decade, Peugeot became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so we would expect to see an increasing share price. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Peugeot share price has gained 8.5% in three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 23% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 2.8% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 5.66.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ENXTPA:UG Past and Future Earnings, February 13th 2020

We know that Peugeot has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Peugeot will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Peugeot, it has a TSR of 52% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Peugeot had a tough year, with a total loss of 2.7% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 23%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8.8%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Peugeot that you should be aware of.

We will like Peugeot better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FR exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.