U.S. Markets open in 21 mins

If You Had Bought Reply (BIT:REY) Shares Five Years Ago You'd Have Made 344%

Simply Wall St

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Just think about the savvy investors who held Reply S.p.A. (BIT:REY) shares for the last five years, while they gained 344%. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. On top of that, the share price is up 35% in about a quarter.

See our latest analysis for Reply

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Reply managed to grow its earnings per share at 21% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 35% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

BIT:REY Past and Future Earnings, January 22nd 2020

We know that Reply has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Reply will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Reply, it has a TSR of 362% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Reply shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 58% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 36% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Reply , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IT exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.