U.S. markets open in 4 hours 29 minutes

If You Had Bought SG Fleet Group (ASX:SGF) Stock Three Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 67% Loss, Today

Simply Wall St

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of SG Fleet Group Limited (ASX:SGF) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Unfortunately, they have held through a 67% decline in the share price in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 50% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 48% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 27% in the same period.

Check out our latest analysis for SG Fleet Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, SG Fleet Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 0.2% each year. The share price decline of 31% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 5.66.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

ASX:SGF Past and Future Earnings April 27th 2020

Dive deeper into SG Fleet Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of SG Fleet Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of SG Fleet Group, it has a TSR of -59% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 15% in the twelve months, SG Fleet Group shareholders did even worse, losing 45% (even including dividends) . However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8.2% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for SG Fleet Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.