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If You Had Bought Yiren Digital (NYSE:YRD) Stock Three Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 82% Loss, Today

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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of Yiren Digital Ltd. (NYSE:YRD); the share price is down a whopping 82% in the last three years. That would be a disturbing experience. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 63% in the last year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 23% in thirty days.

We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

See our latest analysis for Yiren Digital

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, Yiren Digital actually managed to grow EPS by 8.3% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 8.3% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Yiren Digital more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:YRD Income Statement, February 19th 2020
NYSE:YRD Income Statement, February 19th 2020

We know that Yiren Digital has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for Yiren Digital shares, which cost holders 63%, while the market was up about 22%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. The three-year loss of 42% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Yiren Digital , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.