Head-up Display Market with COVID-19 Impact Analysis by Component, Type, Application and Geography - Global Forecast to 2025

Bloomberg
Bond Traders Drive Up Yields After Lack of Powell Pushback
(Bloomberg) -- Traders in the $21 trillion U.S. Treasury market are sending a clear signal that they intend to keep pushing yields higher until they upend financial conditions sufficiently to spark action from the Federal Reserve.Ten-year yields climbed again on Friday, heading toward last week’s one-year high and undermining stocks, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave just a minor nod to the recent, abrupt surge in long-term borrowing costs. He stressed that officials are focused on the long road ahead before they achieve their policy goals.Even before Powell spoke, some strategists were predicting the global borrowing benchmark rate was on course to reach 2%, a mere 40 basis points above last week’s peak. With yields on the rise again, it may not be long before mortgage-related hedging kicks in and brings that target closer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted its year-end forecast for 10-year Treasury yields on Thursday to 1.90% from 1.50%.Friday’s February payrolls report now looms as the next catalyst. Yields have already soared more than a half-point this year as a cheerier outlook for growth and inflation led traders to bring forward how soon they see the Fed lifting its policy rate. Many strategists had expected Powell to try to more forcefully tamp down yields before the Fed’s black-out period ahead of its March 17 policy decision. With no such effort emerging, market participants are left to ponder where policy makers’ pain threshold may be.“In this environment yields can certainly continue to test higher,” said Jonathan Cohn, a strategist at Credit Suisse. “How far the Fed is willing to allow stock markets to fall -- which is the poor man’s version of thinking about broad financial conditions -- is a key question.”During an appearance in a Wall Street Journal webinar Thursday, Powell said the recent bond-market swings “caught my attention.” He said he’s monitoring financial conditions and would be “concerned by disorderly conditions in markets.”Ten-year yields added 8 basis points on the day to 1.56%, and continued to creep higher in Asia hours touching 1.58%, bringing into view last week’s one-year high of 1.61%. With yields at current levels, there have been fresh concerns of convexity-related hedging flow which can undermine liquidity conditions and further roil riskier assets. Stocks slumped Thursday, with the S&P 500 Index briefly erasing its 2021 gains.Powell said he’d be concerned if there were a “persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals.” But he didn’t mention any actions the Fed might take to curtail the climb in yields, which has lifted mortgage rates and risks dimming a bright spot in an economy still on the mend from the pandemic.Wall Street strategists have mulled options the Fed could take to push down long-term yields including: extending the duration of its bond purchases, or implementing a so-called “twist” operation -- involving selling part of the Fed’s shorter-dated holdings in favor of long-term Treasuries.“If yields continue higher too quickly, then that could be a problem for the Fed,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It might undermine asset prices, possibly causing a major correction in stock prices and a freezing up of the housing market. This is not our base case, but it’s a concern and a risk.”Meanwhile, a market proxy for the anticipated annual inflation rate for the next half-decade exceeded 2.5% this week for the first time since 2008 -- aided by climbing oil prices.Traders are now pricing in a full quarter-point Fed rate boost in the first quarter of 2023. The Fed itself has signaled it intends to keep policy steady at least through the end of that year.”Market participants are putting the Fed to the test and saying, ‘OK, given this spike in inflation, if it’s not transient then you’re going to have to act sooner,”’ Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.(Updates with Friday’s yield move)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
7h ago
Investing.com
Dow Off Lows Amid Tech Wreck as Powell Shrugs Off Inflation Fears
By Yasin Ebrahim
21h ago
Bloomberg
Oil Soars to $65 With Saudi Supply Gamble Buoying Market Bulls
(Bloomberg) -- Oil briefly moved above $65 a barrel after OPEC+ chose not to relax supply curbs even as the global economy pulls out of its pandemic-driven slump, confounding widespread expectations the group would loosen the taps.The surprise decision spurred a wave of crude price forecast upgrades by major banks. The producer alliance agreed to hold output steady in April, while Saudi Arabia said that it will maintain its 1 million barrel-a-day voluntary production cut. West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 1.9% and Brent briefly topped $68.See also: Saudis Bet ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Is Over in Push for Pricier OilCrude has soared this year, shepherded higher by OPEC+ restraining supplies and the vaccine-aided recovery in consumption that’s drained inventories. The group’s decision represents a victory for Riyadh, which has advocated for tight curbs to keep prices supported.“Overall, this was the most bullish outcome we could have expected,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia had been debating whether to restore as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of output. As part of the agreement, which was struck at a virtual meeting on Thursday, Russia and Kazakhstan were granted exemptions. The group’s next meeting is set for April 1 to discuss production levels for May.Saudi Arabia’s bold and unexpected gamble to restrain production is founded upon its view that, this time around, higher prices will not lead to a big increase in output by American shale drillers. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg News in an interview after the OPEC+ meeting that shale companies are now more focused on dividends.Oil’s rapid gains this year stand to intensify the debate about the potential resurgence in inflation, and complicate the task facing the Federal Reserve as it supports the U.S. recovery. The Treasury market is already looking for signs of faster price gains, with yields rising rapidly. Crude is up more than 8% since Tuesday’s close despite a strengthening of the dollar and a steep sell-off in other major commodities, especially economic bellwether copper.See also: Here’s What Top Banks Are Saying About the Saudi-Led Oil ShockGoldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its Brent forecasts by $5 a barrel and now sees the global crude benchmark at $80 in the third quarter. JPMorgan increased its Brent projection by $2 to $3 a barrel and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. boosted its three-month target to $70. Citigroup Inc. said crude prices could top $70 before the end of this month.Change CourseOil rising to these levels will likely increase strains within OPEC+ as some members will want to pump more to relieve under-pressure economies, Citi said in a note. Top importers such as China and India would also not be happy and the alliance is likely to change course at its next meeting, it said.The lack of fresh supply was reflected in oil’s futures curve. Brent’s prompt timespread widened to 61 cents in backwardation, a bullish structure where near-dated prices are higher than later-dated ones, from 54 cents Thursday. Gauges further along the oil futures curve also surged.More evidence of the demand recovery continued to emerge, especially in Asia. Gasoline and diesel consumption in China has extended its run above pre-virus levels this year after the faster-than-expected return of factory activity and infrastructure building following the Lunar New Year holiday.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
3h ago
Bloomberg
Kaepernick-Backed Social Justice SPAC Underwhelms in Debut
(Bloomberg) -- Mission Advancement Corp., a company co-sponsored by former NFL quarterback-turned activist Colin Kaepernick, was little changed and thinly traded in its debut after boosting its initial public offering to raise $300 million.Shares of the blank-check firm, which boasts of a board made up entirely of “Black, Indigenous and people of color,” were flat at $10.01 Wednesday in New York. The market’s bland reception of the special purpose acquisition company gave it a market value of less than $400 million.The company, which is in part run by Jahm Najafi, who heads private-equity firm Najafi Companies, sold 30 million units for $10 apiece Tuesday. The pair will focus on diversity issues and racial justice and aim to acquire a consumer company with an enterprise value around $1 billion.A representative for Mission didn’t reply to a request for comment.Wednesday’s debut for Kaepernick’s SPAC, marked the second former-professional athlete-backed blank check company to go public in the last 10 days. Former Yankee all-star Alex Rodriguez’s Slam Corp. rose 5.1% in its first day of trading on Feb. 23, but has since trimmed gains to just 0.9%.For comparison, A-Rod’s SPAC had roughly 24.5 million shares traded in its first session compared to 13.9 million for Kaepernick’s.(Updates share movement throughout, adds trading volume in final paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
2d ago
IPO-Edge.com
Replay: “SPAC to the Future” Featuring SwitchBack, Haymaker, InterPrivate, Nasdaq, Easterly, MorganFranklin, V&E, Mizuho, ICR
March 4 marked an outright meltdown in the SPAC market and IPO Edge was right in the middle of the action. We heard from a panel of nine experienced SPAC sponsors and seasoned advisors during market hours who gave their take on the current market turmoil and the next phase of growth. IPO Edge hosted […]
14h ago
Reuters
Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat
The Nasdaq ended sharply lower on Wednesday after investors sold high-flying technology shares and pivoted to sectors viewed as more likely to benefit from an economic recovery on the back of fiscal stimulus and vaccination programs. Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com Inc dropped more than 2%, weighing more than any other stocks on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 financial and industrial sector indexes reached intra-day record highs.
2d ago
Reuters
Broadcom shares fall as chip sales disappoint
Shares of Broadcom Inc fell on Thursday after the company reported chip sales slightly below Wall Street estimates, joining a growing list of chip industry peers hit by the global semiconductor shortage. Broadcom reported semiconductor solutions revenue of $4.90 billion for its fiscal first quarter ended Jan. 31, slightly below analyst estimates of $4.95 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Shares of the chip company, which is a major supplier to iPhone maker Apple Inc, were down 1.36% at $437.54 in extended trading.
14h ago
FX Empire
Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Price Action Suggests Uncertainty Ahead of OPEC+ Output Decision
Traders aren’t sure if OPEC+ will leave output cuts steady in April, or lower them slightly. Prices could firm if the cuts stay at current levels.
1d ago
Bloomberg
European Stocks Steady as U.K. Budget Winners Boost FTSE 100
(Bloomberg) -- European equities were little changed as investors rotated into cyclicals and out of defensive shares, while some U.K. firms and sectors rose following the country’s budget.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed up less than 0.1%, as gains for carmakers and travel shares offset declines in utilities and health-care shares. The FTSE 100 rallied 0.9% after Britain’s spring budget. U.K. homebuilders climbed after the government confirmed support measures, while Diageo Plc advanced as a planned increase in alcohol duties was canceled in the announcement.Equities in Europe have had a bumpy start to 2021, with a vaccination-driven rally peaking in mid-February. Since then, spiking yields in U.S. treasuries and German bunds have damped investors’ appetite for stocks, particularly weighing on so-called bond-proxy haven sectors.“Markets are transitioning to a more robust and mature phase of the recovery trade,” according to Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau. They expect European stocks to continue to catch up with U.S. peers, because cheaper value shares and non-U.S. equities stand to benefit from rising growth and inflation expectations.Automotive stocks accounted for most of the day’s top performers, buoyed by overall cyclical strength, while UBS Group AG analyst upgrades additionally boosted Renault SA and Continental AG. British insurer Hiscox Ltd. trailed the pack, having scrapped its dividend amid worse-than-expected gross written premiums.You want more news on this market? Click here for a curated First Word channel of actionable news from Bloomberg and select sources. It can be customized to your preferences by clicking into Actions on the toolbar or hitting the HELP key for assistance.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
2d ago
Bloomberg
Platts Says Sorry to Oil Traders for Sudden Brent Overhaul
(Bloomberg) -- S&P Global Platts apologized to oil traders for the speed at which it announced an overhaul of a price that underpins a swath of the world’s crude oil transactions.The company said the plans, which among other things involve adding U.S. crude to the key Dated Brent benchmark, took many in the market by surprise and incurred anger. Platts said it had to take the steps to ensure there’s enough oil to make up the benchmark going forward as supply from the North Sea region declines.“The suddenness of the announced changes and the lack of a further consultation have caused anger and frustration for some and we are sorry for that,” Vera Blei, head of oil markets price reporting at Platts said on a call with market participants and the media on Wednesday. “You told us that we have some work to do to rebuild relationships and trust, and that work is very much under way.”Platts first announced a consultation on the changes in December, before confirming them last week. The plan took some traders by surprise as it will involve cargoes being priced at the point of delivery -- requiring the addition of shipping costs and making other fundamental changes to what the benchmark is. The modifications matter because the Dated Brent benchmark helps price more than two-thirds of the world’s crude.Among those who had originally voiced concern about the Platts plan was Intercontinental Exchange Inc., which houses multiple contracts tied to Dated Brent.Before the revamp was announced, ICE sent Platts a letter cautioning against a speedy overhaul, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move sparked frenzied trading of some contracts last week, before both Platts and ICE issued statements clarifying their plans.ICE also said in the letter it was surprised that Platts had chosen to add U.S. crude to the benchmark, without consulting on the addition of oil from Norway’s giant Johan Sverdrup field. That crude is heavier and more sulfurous than those currently included in Dated Brent, making its addition trickier, Platts said.(Updates with Johan Sverdrup detail in final paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
1d ago
Bloomberg
Josh Kushner’s Oscar Health Falls After $1.4 Billion IPO
(Bloomberg) -- Oscar Health Inc., the health insurance startup co-founded by Josh Kushner, fell 11% its trading debut after raising $1.4 billion in its upsized, above-target initial public offering.The company’s shares, which sold for $39 in the IPO, opened their first day of trading Wednesday at $36 and closed it at $34.80, giving the company a market value of about $7 billion.Oscar Health and a selling shareholder sold 37 million shares on Tuesday. It had marketed 31 million shares for $36 to $38 a share, a range that it had elevated from $32 to $34.Kushner, managing director of the venture firm Thrive Capital, is the brother of Jared Kushner, son-in-law and onetime senior adviser to former U.S. President Donald Trump.“We have been growing a lot in the last couple of years,” said Mario Schlosser, chief executive officer and co-founder of Oscar Health. “The thesis works, the company works and we want to show it to the world.”Though with cash in hand and despite being in a crowded sector, there are no plans for Oscar Health to make acquisitions at the moment, Schlosser said. “We have a ton of growth ahead of us just organically,” he said.Kushner and Thrive Capital will control the majority of the voting power, according to the filings. The New York-based company’s Class A shares are entitled to one vote while Class B shares will have 20.Google’s parent Alphabet Inc., Fidelity Management, Founders Fund, General Catalyst and Khosla Ventures are also among the company’s shareholders.Oscar Health trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol OSCR. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Allen & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. led the offering.(Updates with closing share price in second paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
2d ago
Bloomberg
What’s in the U.K. Budget as Sunak Targets Covid and Deficit
(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak unveiled his second U.K. budget as he tries to balance the need to prop up the economy while the coronavirus pandemic endures with efforts to begin reigning in the deficit.With the prospect of the economy fully reopening still months away -- Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set June 21 as the earliest that can happen -- here’s what the chancellor announced on Wednesday:More Covid AidSunak said his priority is to protect jobs through the pandemic, and promised to support people and businesses as lockdown measures are gradually lifted. He outlined 65 billion pounds ($90 billion) of new Covid support, bringing the total since the crisis began to 352 billion pounds. When capital spending announced at last year’s budget is included, the total fiscal stimulus rises to 407 billion pounds.He announced:An extension of the flagship furlough program, under which the state pays idled workers 80% of their usual wages, up to a maximum of 2,500 pounds a month. It was due to expire at the end of April but will be extended in full through the end of June, and state support will then be tapered over another three months.A fourth three-month grant for self-employed workers will be paid to cover February through April. It will be set at 80% of average trading profits and capped at 7,500 pounds. A fifth grant will also be paid, at a level that depends on the change in recipients’ turnover. More than 600,000 people who previously weren’t eligible will qualify for these grants.A six-month extension to the 20-pound a week uplift in Universal Credit social security payments, with equivalent support for working tax credit claimants in the form of a one-off payment of 500 pounds.An increase in the National Minimum Wage to 8.91 pounds/hour from April.A new program of loans of as much as 10 million pounds for struggling firms. The program replaces 3 existing plans, is open for businesses of any size, and the loans are 80% backed by the state.A three-month extension of the business-rates holiday for retail, hospitality and leisure, running through June. Then a nine-month, 2/3 discount for firms that remain closed, and a lower cap for those able to reopen. Sunak priced this measure at 6 billion pounds.A six-month extension in the temporary reduction of value-added tax for the hospitality and attractions sectors, which will now run through September. The rate is down to 5% from 20%. For the following six months, a discounted rate of 12.5% will apply.A three-month extension to the stamp duty holiday for the first 500,000 pounds of property sales. Then for three months, the holiday will apply to the first 250,000 pounds of a property purchase, before reverting to 125,000 pounds.TaxationThe chancellor also signaled there’s pain ahead as he tries to rein in a fiscal deficit that the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted will swell toward 355 billion pounds this tax year.“The amount we’ve borrowed is only comparable with the amount we borrowed during the two world wars,” Sunak said. “It is going to be the work of many governments, over many decades, to pay it back.”Sunak said it would be “irresponsible” to allow debt to rise unchecked, and announced a series of tax measures to take effect in future years.Corporation tax will rise to 25% in 2023 from 19% now. Sunak said the U.K. can do that and still retain the lowest level among the Group of Seven major economies. The chancellor introduced a small profits rate keeping the tax at 19% for businesses with profits of 50,000 pounds or less. There will be a taper above that so that only companies with profits of 250,000 pounds or more pay the full rate.The tax treatment of losses will be more generous for the next two years, allowing companies to claim more tax refunds.From next year, the thresholds at which people start paying different levels of income tax will be frozen until April 2026. Rises to 12,570 pounds and 50,270 pounds for the basic and higher thresholds will go ahead as planned next year.Sunak said he’d also freeze until April 2026 the inheritance tax thresholds, the lifetime allowance on pensions savings and the annual exempt amount in capital gains tax.From April 2022, the VAT registration threshold will also be frozen.There was also a “Super Deduction” sweetener to encourage companies to invest: For the next two years, companies that invest will be able to reduce their taxable profits by 130% of the amount they’ve invested.Alcohol and fuel duties were frozen.Leveling UpThere were several announcements that fed into the ruling Conservative Party’s “leveling up” mantra aimed at spreading prosperity nationwide:22 billion pounds of capital and loan guarantees to capitalize a new national infrastructure bank, with the aim of supporting 40 billion pounds of infrastructure investment. The bank will be located in Leeds.5 billion pounds of grants worth up to 18,000 pounds each to help nearly 700,000 eligible businesses in the retail, hospitality, accommodation, leisure and personal-care sectors reopen.The Treasury and other government departments will set up a new campus in Darlington.Eight freeports were announced for East Midlands Airport, Felixstowe and Harwich, Humber, Liverpool City Region, Plymouth, Solent, Thames and Teesside.1 billion pounds of “Towns Deals” was announced for 45 locations.Funding in the budget of 1.2 billion pounds for the Scottish government, 740 million pounds for the Welsh government and 410 million pounds for the Northern Ireland executive.Other AnnouncementsSunak published an independent review into U.K. stock market listing rules as part of an effort to bolster the City of London post-Brexit.The world’s first sovereign green savings bond for retail investors. The funds raised will be earmarked for projects such as renewable energy and clean transportation.A mortgage guarantee program for 95% mortgages to help people get on the property ladder.1.65 billion pounds of funding for the U.K.’s Covid vaccination drive.55 million pounds to develop vaccines against new Covid variants and to study the effects of combinations of vaccines.375 million pounds for a new public-private fund to invest in fast-growing tech start-ups.A 520 million-pound ‘Help to Grow’ program to provide small and medium-sized businesses with subsidized management training, discounted software and technology advice.A 300 million-pound summer sports recovery package to get sports such as cricket, horse racing and tennis reopened.408 million pounds of funding for museums and the arts.126 million pounds for traineeships, and an increase to 3,000 pounds in the cash incentive for hiring apprentices.150 million pounds to help community groups take over struggling local facilities such as pubs and sports clubs.A new fast-track visa program to ease entry to the U.K. for highly-skilled researchers, engineers, scientists as well as those working in the financial technology and cyber sectors.The chancellor raised the contactless payments limit for credit and debit cards to 100 pounds from 45 pounds.The Bank of England will be given a new mandate to consider net zero targets.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
2d ago
Bloomberg
Powell Likely to Push Back on Bond-Market Doubts Over Fed Policy
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will probably seek to convince suddenly skeptical financial markets on Thursday that the central bank will be ultra-patient in pulling back its support for the economy after the pandemic has ended.Rather than trying to cap rising long-term interest rates, Fed watchers expect Powell to use his appearance at a Wall Street Journal webinar to reaffirm the Fed’s determination to meet its revamped employment and inflation goals by keeping monetary policy looser for longer, and to make clear he’d like to avoid a repeat of last week’s disorderly bond market.“It’s not an issue of trying to talk down the market,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. “But you do want interest rates to be aligned with the Fed’s objectives.”That’s important for the economy’s long-run health. If the markets and the Fed are in sync, they’ll work together to attain the central bank’s objectives of maximum employment and 2% average inflation under its new strategic framework.Long-term interest rates have climbed this year -- the yield on the Treasury’s 10-year note was 1.48% at 4:50 p.m. in New York Wednesday, up from under 1% at the start of 2021 -- as more widespread dissemination of vaccines to fight the virus and the promise of stepped-up government spending has fanned expectations of much faster economic growth ahead.Brainard PatientIn what was potentially a preview of Powell’s remarks, Governor Lael Brainard stressed on Tuesday how far the Fed was from meeting its objectives.“We have quite a lot of ground to cover,” she told a Council on Foreign Relations webinar. “It’s appropriate to be patient.”Brainard said that the speed of last week’s moves in the bond market had “caught my eye,” adding that she would be concerned if she saw disorderly trading, or a persistent tightening in financial conditions, that could slow progress toward the Fed’s goals.In congressional testimony on Feb. 23 and 24, Powell played down concerns that rising yields would hurt the economy, instead declaring at one point that they were a “statement of confidence” in the outlook.The markets blew up the next day, with the 10-year Treasury note yield briefly spiking to 1.6%.Investors also moved forward their expectations for the first Fed rate hike to early 2023 as they began to question the central bank’s commitment to keeping policy easy until inflation overshoots 2%.“Early 2023 strikes me as quite early,” said Goldman Sachs Group chief economist Jan Hatzius, who doesn’t expect a hike until 2024.PGIM Fixed Income chief economist Nathan Sheets said this won’t be the last time that the Fed is confronted by escalating long-term interest rates. He sees the 10-year yield climbing as high as 2% during the summer before tailing off by end year.The Fed has a variety of ways of pushing back against a yield run-up if it sees a need to do so.Guidance LiteFirst will come more words. Call it forward guidance lite.The central bank is currently buying $120 billion of assets per month -- $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of mortgage-backed debt -- and has pledged to keep up that pace “until substantial further progress” has been made toward its goals.To help anchor yields, policy makers could become more explicit about when they’ll begin to scale back purchases. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida took a step in that direction last week, suggesting the current pace of buying would be appropriate for the rest of 2021.Policy makers could also be more definitive about what it would take for them to raise interest rates. They’ve said they will keep rates near zero until the labor market has reached maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed that level for some time. But those thresholds are somewhat amorphous and open to interpretation.After the words, would come action. The Fed could step up its bond-buying program or shift purchases of mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries.Operation TwistAnother option: a reprise of Operation Twist, in which the Fed eliminates its holdings of Treasury bills and puts the money into longer-dated securities. That would have the added benefit of alleviating downward pressure on bill rates, which are threatening to go negative.The Fed could also emulate its Australian counterpart and adopt yield curve control, seeking to cap yields of short-dated Treasuries -- a strategy that Brainard has spoken approvingly of in the past.Wrightson ICAP LLC chief economist Lou Crandall said Powell has to be careful about pushing back on interest-rate expectations baked into the Treasury market. The Fed’s next Summary of Economic Projections, which will be published after its March 16-17 policy meeting, might show a growing number of policy makers penciling in a rate increase in 2023.Powell could instead highlight the Fed’s new modus operandi for monetary policy under the framework it adopted last year.“He may try to focus the market’s attention on how much of a regime change there’s been in the Fed’s thinking,” Crandall said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
1d ago
MoneyWise
How stimulus checks can give you a $14,000 windfall this year
Some households are collecting a big pile of federal money in 2021.
10h ago
MoneyWise
Stimulus check changes: Did Joe Biden kill your $1,400 payment?
The president has agreed to a compromise making millions ineligible for the third checks.
12h ago
Bloomberg
Oil Jumps After OPEC+ Surprises Market With Unchanged Output
(Bloomberg) -- Oil surged to the highest in nearly two years after the OPEC+ alliance surprised traders with its decision to keep output unchanged, signaling a tighter crude market in the months ahead.Futures in New York climbed 4.2%, rising the most since Saudi Arabia last shocked markets with its January pledge to unilaterally cut output. Global benchmark Brent also jumped on Thursday. The OPEC+ producer alliance agreed during a virtual gathering to hold output steady in April. Saudi Arabia said it is in no hurry to bring back supply and will maintain its 1 million barrel-a-day voluntary production cut.“The decision to maintain the current OPEC+ supply cuts for the month of April has given the oil bulls exactly what they needed as far as the tight-supply narrative goes,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank. “The Saudis shrewdly recognized that in order to maintain the recent upward price momentum and speculative buying interest in oil futures, they needed to ‘feed the bull.’”OPEC+ has helped drain a global glut that accumulated during the pandemic through its supply management, pushing crude futures up more than 30% so far this year. The strength is evident across many corners of the oil market, with key timespreads widening further in a bullish backwardation structure -- an indication of tightening supplies -- and data from brokers showing rallies in key swap markets in the North Sea.Meanwhile, Brent options volume rose to the highest since March 2020, according to preliminary trade data compiled by Bloomberg.The OPEC+ decision represents a victory for Saudi Arabia, which has advocated for production restraints to keep crude prices supported. However, higher prices could spur additional drilling activity by U.S. shale explorers, with domestic oil rigs already at the highest since May 2020. Saudi Arabia appeared unfazed by that risk: Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters after the meeting that the U.S. mantra of “drill, baby, drill is gone forever.”See also: Russia Needs April Oil Output Hike Due to Seasonal Demand: Novak“It’s going to get tight,” said Bill O’Grady, executive vice president at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “The longer prices stay up, the greater the likelihood we will eventually see a supply response from the U.S. But, it’s not going to be as immediate as it would have been in the past.”OPEC+ had been debating whether to restore as much as 1.5 million barrels a day of output. As part of the agreement, Russia and Kazakhstan were granted exemptions. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for April 1 to discuss production levels for May.The ramifications of a swiftly tightening oil market may also impact prices at the pump, with U.S. retail gasoline prices approaching $3 per gallon for the first time in six years.The rally in crude prices that’s helped send fuel prices soaring is being compounded by refined product supply declines in the U.S. after a deep freeze paralyzed much of the Gulf Coast refining sector late last month. Gasoline futures in New York climbed above $2 a gallon on Thursday before settling just under the key level.Meanwhile, tensions are gathering in the Middle East after Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed attacks on Saudi targets. The rebels, who are backed by Iran, said they bombed an airbase in Saudi Arabia’s southwest with a drone and hit a Saudi Aramco crude facility in Jeddah. Aramco and Saudi officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
15h ago
LA Times
Texas watchdog says grid operator made $16-billion error
A firm hired to monitor Texas' power markets says the region's grid manager overpriced electricity over two days during last month's energy crisis, resulting in $16 billion in overcharges.
8h ago
Reuters
Wall Street slumps on Fed remarks, bond scare
Wall Street slumped on Thursday and global stock markets declined after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit flowing until Americans are back to work, rebutting investors who have openly doubted he can stick to that promise once the pandemic passes. Benchmarket U.S. Treasury yields rose toward last week's highs as Powell spoke, and the dollar hit a three-month high. With COVID-19 vaccines rolling out and the government fiscal taps open "there is good reason to think we will make more progress soon" toward the Fed's goals of maximum employment and 2% sustained inflation, Powell told a Wall Street Journal forum.
1d ago
Benzinga
Analyst Who Predicted $50,000 Bitcoin Sees Key Metric Indicating 'March To $100,000'
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be headed for the $100,000 mark by the end of this month, according to Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg analyst. What Happened: McGlone, who previously ascribed a $50,000 plus level for the cryptocurrency, said in a March outlook report that if the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC: GBTC) closing at its steepest discount ever is an indicator, then it may “signal [Bitcoin’s] march to $100,000.” The Greyscale premium, a metric watched closely, ended February with a 2.7% discount. McGlone pointed to March 2017, when BTC backed up to nearly $1,000 on the way to its peak near $20,000 in December of that year. “Sharp reductions in the GBTC premium have often marked bottoms in Bitcoin,” wrote McGlone. “The increasing probability of [exchange-traded] funds in the U.S., on the back of launches in Canada are adding pressure to the trust price, but we see sustaining the upward trajectory as the more likely outcome.” Bitcoin traded 8.48% lower at $47,120.70 at press time. GBTC closed 10.31% lower at $41.40 on Thursday. Why It Matters: The Grayscale premium is a reference to the difference between the value of the holdings of GBTC versus the market price of its holdings. McGlone also noted the increased replacement of Gold in portfolios with BTC. “In 2020, the benchmark crypto gained legitimacy with declining volatility vs. the opposite in most assets. In 2021, we see little to stop the process of old-guard gold allocators simply focusing on prudent diversification,” wrote the analyst. On Thursday, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell said that BTC could replace all of the world’s currencies and hit a million-dollar price target within the next ten years. “The younger demographic is certainly taking notice of it and they see it as a better version of gold,” said Powell. Read Next: 'Morons:' Crypto Enthusiasts Burn Banksy's Real Artwork To Turn It Into Digital Token See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaHow Square's Purchase of Jay Z's Tidal Could Popularize Blockchain'Morons:' Crypto Enthusiasts Burn Banksy's Real Artwork To Turn It Into Digital Token© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
8h ago
Bloomberg
Bundesbank Missed Chance to Push Back on Wirecard Short Ban
(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s central bank passed up a chance to push back forcefully against a 2019 ban on bets against Wirecard AG shares after judging the matter not to be its responsibility.After Vice President Claudia Buch spoke to her counterpart at market regulator BaFin in February 2019, the Bundesbank opted not to share its own internal judgment on why a short sale prohibition wasn’t necessary, according to briefing documents for a parliamentary hearing on Wirecard seen by Bloomberg.Wirecard’s share price whipsawed in 2019 on media reports of accounting irregularities only to collapse the following year after saying that 1.9 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in cash probably never existed. BaFin’s controversial ban on bets against the stock in 2019 drew criticism that the German establishment appeared more keen to protect the company rather than rigorously investigate it, effectively prolonging the fraud.Germany’s Finance Ministry previously told lawmakers that the Bundesbank didn’t provide a formal statement because the question didn’t relate to financial stability, its specific area of responsibility. A Bundesbank spokeswoman referred Bloomberg to that communication.BaFin justified its ban citing the preservation of “market integrity,” which the regulator said is in it’s remit rather than the central bank’s.Buch, who through a spokesperson declined to comment, is scheduled to testify at the parliamentary inquiry on Friday. Lawmakers will seek answers from her on whether the Bundesbank was obliged to give a formal opinion to BaFin.The German central bank needs to be consulted by law if BaFin plans to adopt measures which address financial stability or if the functioning of the market is under threat. These factors and the market integrity that is in BaFin’s remit rely on some common indicators and the broader differences are not clearly defined.Bundesbank internal communications show that officials there believed a blanket ban on short-selling Wirecard stock was not necessary and a case-by-case approach to perceived manipulation would be more appropriate.The briefing documents contain an email from one Bundesbank employee to another stating that it should provide such statements to BaFin under its internal guidelines.Read More: German Watchdog Had Plenty of Chances to Dig Into Wirecard FraudBaFin didn’t have a legal basis for its actions, according to Danyal Bayaz, a lawmaker from the Green party.“BaFin seemed to want the short sale ban above all else and essentially punched it through,” said Bayaz, who is a member of the parliamentary committee that is looking into the fraud scandal. “That put them on Wirecard’s side.”The temporary prohibition of bets that Wirecard shares would fall was not about protecting the payments company, a BaFin spokeswoman said. The decisive reason for enacting it was a notification from Munich prosecutors that there were specific indications of planned manipulative attacks on the share price through short sales, she said.(Updates with comments from lawmaker starting in tenth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
2h ago

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Analyst Who Predicted $50,000 Bitcoin Sees Key Metric Indicating 'March To $100,000'

Bundesbank Missed Chance to Push Back on Wirecard Short Ban