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Heartland Financial USA, Inc. Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Simply Wall St
·4 mins read

Investors in Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLF) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at US$50.23 following the release of its annual results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$553m and statutory earnings per share of US$4.14. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Heartland Financial USA

NasdaqGS:HTLF Past and Future Earnings, January 30th 2020
NasdaqGS:HTLF Past and Future Earnings, January 30th 2020

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Heartland Financial USA from five analysts is for revenues of US$567.8m in 2020, which is a credible 2.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$4.07, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$565.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.88 in 2020. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Heartland Financial USA's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$51.00, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Heartland Financial USA analyst has a price target of US$53.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$49.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or that analysts have a clear view on its prospects.

Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how Heartland Financial USA forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. We would highlight that Heartland Financial USA's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 2.7% increase next year well below the historical 14%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect Heartland Financial USA to grow slower than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Heartland Financial USA following these results. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Heartland Financial USA's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$51.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Heartland Financial USA going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Heartland Financial USA is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.