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Heat: Sell The Rally

Henry Marchell

DAILY 28280 28720 29153 29570 29990 DOWN
WEEKLY 26365 27990 29153 30250 30880 DOWN
Daily Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0141, 3.0744, 3.0634
Weekly Moving Averages: 21, 55, & 100: 3.0665, 3.0164, 2.9984
The key downside pivot of 2.9345 was busted and settled below.
• The lack of early cold is the reason. This is a typical seasonal psychology. Jan is usually hit at year’s end unless the is very early cold such as what occurred in 1989.
• That is the year the Hudson River froze.
• Normally by December tertiary storage is full and the burn rate has been minimal.
• So it is despite very cold weather in Europe gasoil has been under pressure.
• This is macro economics that are forcing that market lower principally following 2oil down.
• This dynamic is likely to continue early in the coming week.
• There will be minor resistance a the 2.9450 to 2.95 area. The minor upside pivot is 2.9575.
• The key upside pivot to the intraday chart is 3.0050.
• The model suggests that Jan will crease the 2.90 level to see 2.8750 to 2.87.
• We are a seller of the rally at 2.95 with a protective stop above 2.9575. This trade is valid as long as Jan does not pierce 2.9100 prior to being elected.

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