Investors in ENAV S.p.A. (BIT:ENAV) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.3% to close at €5.36 following the release of its quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €274m were in line with what analysts predicted, ENAV surprised by delivering a profit of €0.21 per share, modestly greater than expected. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the latest consensus from ENAV's five analysts is for revenues of €928.4m in 2020, which would reflect an okay 7.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to accumulate 3.2% to €0.22. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of €927.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.22 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €5.29, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ENAV, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €5.70 and the most bearish at €3.94 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that ENAV's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 7.0% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.6%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, analysts also expect ENAV to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at €5.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ENAV. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for ENAV going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the ENAV Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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