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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.5% to US$40.00 in the week after its latest yearly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$4.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.40. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' 17 analysts is for revenues of US$5.13b in 2021, which would reflect a meaningful 9.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 34% to US$3.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.23 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$50.45. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$37.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 9.7%, compared to a historical growth rate of 31% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.6% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to sales forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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