Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson is the favourite to replace Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and UK Prime Minister if May loses today’s vote of confidence in her leadership.
However, betting markets expect the prime minister to weather the challenge to her leadership.
Boris Johnson is 6/1 to be the next prime minister, according to OddsChecker.com, which compares betting prices across a number of online bookmakers.
Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is 7/1 to be the next UK leader, followed by home secretary Sajid Javid.
Other runners and riders include:
Michael Gove — 8/1
Jeremy Hunt — 9/1
Amber Rudd — 20/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg — 20/1
David Davis — 20/1
However, a Labour government is seen as more likely than Raab or Javid entering 10 Downing Street, according to OddsChecker.com. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is 6/1 to be the next prime minister, according to the website. Corbyn is also the most popular bet among punters, according to Oddschecker.com, with the Labour leader accounting for around 40% of all money stakes in the next prime minister market.
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Betting markets expect Theresa May to survive to challenge to her leadership however. William Hill are offering odds of 4/6 that May wins the vote, while the market on the vote on betting exchange Smarkets is pricing a 71% probability of May winning the vote.
“The odds suggest Theresa will be safe but it could be a close run thing,” said William Hill spokesman Rupert Adams.
Graham Brady, the head of the Conservative party’s 1922 Committee, announced on Wednesday morning that Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the party. The vote was triggered after 15% of her MPs delivered letters of no confidence in May. There has been widespread unhappiness with May’s Brexit deal, which the prime minister has insisted is the best possible agreement.
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If May loses the vote of no confidence then she would lose her position as the leader of the Conservative party and therefore prime minister. A new leadership contest within the Conservative party would then occur.
Whoever won that contest would likely be able to form a government as the Conservative party is the single largest party in the House of Commons. However, the Conservatives do no hold an outright majority in the House of Commons and the Labour party may seek to form a minority government or even push for a general election.
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Former London mayor Boris Johnson served as foreign secretary from 2016 until July this year when he resigned in protest at the government’s Brexit strategy.
Johnson refused to rule out a challenge to May’s leadership when he appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show last weekend.
Alex Donohue, a Bookmakers.tv political analyst, told Yahoo Finance UK: “Boris backers might be waiting longer than they thought for a payout with the odds now coming out unequivocally in favour of May surviving the vote of no confidence.
He added: “It might feel like turmoil for the nation but one winner regardless of the outcome is the betting industry as the ongoing speculation fuels a multi-million pound political punt of epic proportions.”
