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Here's Why MPLX is Likely to Deliver Earnings Beat in Q4

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·4 min read
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MPLX LP MPLX is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 2, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the partnership reported earnings of 74 cents per unit, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents. The results were backed by increased contributions from logistics and storage operations, as well as the gathering and processing business. Increased pipeline throughputs and natural gas liquids’ prices buoyed the partnership’s third-quarter results.

The midstream energy firm beat the consensus estimate in two of the prior four quarters, missed once and met the same once, the average earnings surprise being 3.54%. This is depicted in the graph below:

MPLX LP Price and EPS Surprise

MPLX LP Price and EPS Surprise
MPLX LP Price and EPS Surprise

MPLX LP price-eps-surprise | MPLX LP Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the upcoming earnings announcement.

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of 75 cents has seen one upward revision and no downward movement in the past 60 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year rise of 19.1%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.3 billion for the quarter, indicating a marginal increase from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Quantitative Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for MPLX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: MPLX has an Earnings ESP of +3.22%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate for the quarter’s earnings is pinned at 77 cents per unit, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 75 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MPLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Driving Earnings

Findlay, OH-based MPLX provides a wide range of midstream energy services, including fuel distribution solutions. Hence, the partnership is least exposed to commodity price fluctuations and is expected to have generated stable fee-based revenues in the fourth quarter from long-term contracts.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude was hovering around $80 per barrel in the December-end quarter of 2021. In comparison with the year-ago quarter, the commodity price has improved drastically. Rising commodity prices have changed the playing area for the midstream space in the fourth quarter. The favorable commodity pricing scenario has driven upstream investments, thereby increasing volumes for midstream operators.

MPLX has been well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for fresh midstream assets like pipeline networks, and processing and fractionation units in order to support the increasing volumes of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs in the prolific shale plays in the United States. The impacts of this are expected to get reflected in MPLX’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings results.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other firms that you may want to consider as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Murphy USA MUSA has an Earnings ESP of +28.82% and it flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Murphy USA is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MUSA’s earnings is pegged at $3.38 per share, suggesting a massive improvement from the prior-year reported figure.

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player at present.

ExxonMobil is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter results on Feb 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM’s quarterly earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, suggesting a significant increase from the prior-year reported figure.

PBF Energy PBF has an Earnings ESP of +24.81% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.

PBF Energy is scheduled to release the fourth-quarter results on Feb 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBF’s quarterly earnings is pegged at 51 cents per share, suggesting a massive increase from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

MPLX LP (MPLX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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