Paramount is reportedly delaying "Top Gun: Maverick" once again, as Hollywood struggles to outrun the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
With theatergoers in major markets still reluctant to brave the raging Delta variant, the studio pulled the Tom Cruise-led film from its Thanksgiving weekend release date, pushing it out to May 27, 2022, according to multiple reports. That now forces "Mission: Impossible 7" to also move its planned debut to September 30, 2022 — even as other major tentpoles like Marvel's "Shang Chi" brave theatrical debuts.
Additionally, Paramount is moving "Jackass Forever" to release on February 4, 2022, instead of the originally planned October 22, 2021.
On the heels of this news, Box Office Pro Chief Analyst Shawn Robbins told Yahoo Finance that the entire industry is "rolling with the punches" after a year and a half of COVID-related delays and shutdowns.
"'Top Gun' and 'Mission Impossible' 'are two movies that are very important to the Hollywood [and] theatrical ecospheres. It's very clear that Paramount and Tom Cruise want these to be big films that people can see in theaters, when everybody can do it," the analyst noted.
"That's really the the underlying theme of all of this — not every country is on the same page in terms of the pandemic recovery," he continued, underscoring the importance of global box office performance for these titles, as well.
It's a wait and see game, as always...Shawn Robbins, Box Office Pro Chief Analyst
Unlike other big studios like Disney (DIS), which has multiple franchise films out for release this year, Paramount will be heavily relying on "Top Gun: Maverick" to deliver — hence the decision to push back the release date.
"'Top Gun' is one of the biggest films [Paramount] is going to release for quite some time — it's an important movie in their arsenal," Robbins said.
"I think theater owners kind of understand that at this point, so while it is disappointing that they won't have that movie, there's still a number of other movies set to release between now and the end of the year," he added.
Provided "not too much changes," theaters should feel relatively optimistic about the end of year, although "it's a wait and see game, as always."
Other notable titles set for a 2021 release include "Spider Man: No Way Home," "Dune," Steven Spielberg's "West Side Story" and the much anticipated James Bond film "No Time to Die."
Although it's possible that some of these films could move due to uncertainties surrounding the Delta variant surge, "No Time to Die" is almost 100% guaranteed to play out in theaters on October 8. MGM has shelled out a decent chunk of change to delay the film several times.
"From what we're hearing, and obviously there's a lot of speculation, it really sounds like there's a true commitment to put this movie out," Box Office Pro's Robbins said.
Overall, films that have had theatrical-only releases, like "A Quiet Place II," "F9," and "Free Guy," outperformed at the box office — "proving the demand for that long-term sustainability of going to the movies."
The analyst added that "out of all the fall movies, 'No Time to Die' also has the best positioning," explaining that it is the next big tentpole after Marvel's "Shang-Chi" debut this weekend.
After October, Robbins noted, the rest of the fall schedule is "crowded even by normal standards."
Still, the introduction of vaccine passports, the state of COVID-19 cases and overall consumer sentiment could weigh on studios' decisions — and new data indicates that comfort levels are on the decline.
Moviegoing comfort levels see steep August drop
According to the most recent survey from the National Research Group (NRG), which has consistently polled 900 American moviegoers ages 12-64 since the start of the pandemic, comfort levels fell sharply between July and August amid the Delta variant surge.
On August 15, comfort plunged dramatically — sinking from 81% on July 11 to 64% in the five weeks that followed, the survey noted. The indicator stabilized in the back half of August as the growth of new COVID-19 cases slowed. The company's most recent read, fielded on September 1, had comfort up slightly at 66%.
For context, at its lowest point (April 2020), only 19% of moviegoers were comfortable (very or somewhat) going to the movies.
Still, Robbins noted that theaters are in a much better position today than they were even six months ago. Although comfort has declined, the box office has held at a relatively steady level compared to historical figures.
NRG revealed that July 2021 was at 47% of the 2015-2019 5-year average, while August 2021 actually improved to 49% of the 5-year average. In comparison, April and May were a mere 21% of the 5-year average.
"There's a lot of reasons for cautious optimism in terms of where things go in the fall and the holiday season...right now, it's kind of a glass half full view," Robbins said.
"We're not going to see the box office return to 'normal' immediately. But we're still at a point where things have vastly improved," he added.
"Ultimately, it's a chicken and egg situation — we see that a lot of people are ready to go back to theaters, but then again we don't really know exactly when it will be that vaccines hit a high enough marker to convince more people to come back," Robbins said.
Alexandra is a Producer & Entertainment Correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alliecanal8193
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