Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Blueprint Medicines (NASDAQ:BPMC) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.
How Long Is Blueprint Medicines's Cash Runway?
You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. In September 2019, Blueprint Medicines had US$493m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was US$311m. Therefore, from September 2019 it had roughly 19 months of cash runway. Importantly, analysts think that Blueprint Medicines will reach cashflow breakeven in 2 years. That means it doesn't have a great deal of breathing room, but it shouldn't really need more cash, considering that cash burn should be continually reducing. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Well Is Blueprint Medicines Growing?
Blueprint Medicines boosted investment sharply in the last year, with cash burn ramping by 89%. That's pretty alarming given that operating revenue dropped 65% over the last year, though the business is likely attempting a strategic pivot. In light of the above-mentioned, we're pretty wary of the trajectory the company seems to be on. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.
Can Blueprint Medicines Raise More Cash Easily?
Since Blueprint Medicines can't yet boast improving growth metrics, the market will likely be considering how it can raise more cash if need be. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash to fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).
Since it has a market capitalisation of US$3.9b, Blueprint Medicines's US$311m in cash burn equates to about 7.9% of its market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.
So, Should We Worry About Blueprint Medicines's Cash Burn?
Even though its falling revenue makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought Blueprint Medicines's cash burn relative to its market cap was relatively promising. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Cash burning companies are always on the riskier side of things, but after considering all of the factors discussed in this short piece, we're not too worried about its rate of cash burn. We think it's very important to consider the cash burn for loss making companies, but other considerations such as the amount the CEO is paid can also enhance your understanding of the business. You can click here to see what Blueprint Medicines's CEO gets paid each year.
Of course Blueprint Medicines may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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