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Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying APA Group's (ASX:APA) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

APA Group (ASX:APA) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next four days. Investors can purchase shares before the 30th of December in order to be eligible for this dividend, which will be paid on the 17th of March.

APA Group's next dividend payment will be AU$0.24 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed AU$0.50 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, APA Group stock has a trailing yield of around 5.0% on the current share price of A$10.11. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.

View our latest analysis for APA Group

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. APA Group distributed an unsustainably high 186% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without more sustainable payment behaviour, the dividend looks precarious. A useful secondary check can be to evaluate whether APA Group generated enough free cash flow to afford its dividend. Over the last year, it paid out more than three-quarters (86%) of its free cash flow generated, which is fairly high and may be starting to limit reinvestment in the business.

It's good to see that while APA Group's dividends were not covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. If executives were to continue paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Very few companies are able to sustainably pay dividends larger than their reported earnings.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
historic-dividend

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with falling earnings are riskier for dividend shareholders. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. APA Group's earnings per share have fallen at approximately 14% a year over the previous five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. APA Group has delivered an average of 4.5% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. The only way to pay higher dividends when earnings are shrinking is either to pay out a larger percentage of profits, spend cash from the balance sheet, or borrow the money. APA Group is already paying out 186% of its profits, and with shrinking earnings we think it's unlikely that this dividend will grow quickly in the future.

The Bottom Line

Is APA Group worth buying for its dividend? Earnings per share have been shrinking in recent times. Worse, APA Group's paying out a majority of its earnings and more than half its free cash flow. Positive cash flows are good news but it's not a good combination. With the way things are shaping up from a dividend perspective, we'd be inclined to steer clear of APA Group.

Having said that, if you're looking at this stock without much concern for the dividend, you should still be familiar of the risks involved with APA Group. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for APA Group you should be aware of.

A common investment mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a list of promising dividend stocks with a greater than 2% yield and an upcoming dividend.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.