There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?
So, the natural question for Colorado Resources (CVE:CXO) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.
Does Colorado Resources Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at September 2019, Colorado Resources had cash of CA$1.0m and such minimal debt that we can ignore it for the purposes of this analysis. Importantly, its cash burn was CA$2.0m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of approximately 6 months from September 2019. To be frank, this kind of short runway puts us on edge, as it indicates the company must reduce its cash burn significantly, or else raise cash imminently. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Is Colorado Resources's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Colorado Resources didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. We'd venture that the 75% reduction in cash burn over the last year shows that management are, at least, mindful of its ongoing need for cash. Admittedly, we're a bit cautious of Colorado Resources due to its lack of significant operating revenues. So we'd generally prefer stocks from this list of stocks that have analysts forecasting growth.
How Hard Would It Be For Colorado Resources To Raise More Cash For Growth?
While we're comforted by the recent reduction evident from our analysis of Colorado Resources's cash burn, it is still worth considering how easily the company could raise more funds, if it wanted to accelerate spending to drive growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash to drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).
Colorado Resources has a market capitalisation of CA$11m and burnt through CA$2.0m last year, which is 18% of the company's market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.
How Risky Is Colorado Resources's Cash Burn Situation?
On this analysis of Colorado Resources's cash burn, we think its cash burn reduction was reassuring, while its cash runway has us a bit worried. Summing up, we think the Colorado Resources's cash burn is a risk, based on the factors we mentioned in this article. Notably, our data indicates that Colorado Resources insiders have been trading the shares. You can discover if they are buyers or sellers by clicking on this link.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
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