Hexcel Corporation's (NYSE:HXL) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?
Most readers would already be aware that Hexcel's (NYSE:HXL) stock increased significantly by 19% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Hexcel's ROE in this article.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
Check out our latest analysis for Hexcel
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hexcel is:
8.1% = US$126m ÷ US$1.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.08 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of Hexcel's Earnings Growth And 8.1% ROE
On the face of it, Hexcel's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 10%, we may spare it some thought. Having said that, Hexcel's five year net income decline rate was 37%. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.
However, when we compared Hexcel's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.9% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Hexcel is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Hexcel Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Hexcel's low three-year median payout ratio of 19% (or a retention ratio of 81%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.
Additionally, Hexcel has paid dividends over a period of eight years, which means that the company's management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 22%. Still, forecasts suggest that Hexcel's future ROE will rise to 14% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Summary
In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Hexcel's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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